FXUS65 KPIH 241810

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

1210 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High pressure results in dry weather, light winds and

  seasonable temps today. 



- Fast moving frontal system brings southerly wind first, then a

  mix of rain and snow Saturday through Monday. 



- There are signs of a potential ridge of high pressure

  beginning Tuesday for the latter half of the week, but

  isolated mountain showers may continue.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1213 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Forecast continues to look dry today. Expect 

increasing clouds tonight as our next storm system approaches the 

region. Looks like the precipitation will not reach the central 

mountains until Saturday morning. Winds continue to look light 

today, but we could start seeing gusty conditions develop late 

tonight. Wind gusts probably more noticeable on benches and mid to 

upper slopes with 20 to 30 mph gusts likely there. Temps continue to 

look seasonable across the region today.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 132 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Models have trended slightly slower with onset and progression

of pattern change arriving Saturday. Very light valley rain and

mountain rain/snow mix begins early in the day across the

central mountains then spreads east Saturday afternoon and

evening across the remainder of East Idaho. Initial snow levels

above 7500 ft drop quickly behind the front Saturday night to

valley floors across the central mountains and roughly 5500-6500

ft for the Snake Plain and southern/eastern highlands.

Accumulations across the eastern highlands and valleys of the

central mountains range from a dusting up to 2". Amounts

increase to 3-6" across the central mountains above 7000 ft with

higher amounts at ridgetops. Winds Saturday will be a warm

southerly wind for most of the day, and may approach the 30 mph

Wind Advisory threshold at times, with gusts 40 to 45 mph

especially with passage of the front. Cold temperatures behind

the front keep snow levels just above valley floors for the

Snake Plain and eastern highlands Sunday, sinking Sunday night.

Potential exists for lower valleys to see a rain/snow mix or a

changeover to light snow, but accumulations will remain minimal,

if any. Otherwise snow accumulation profiles for Sunday and

Sunday night look similar to the prior 24 hours. Winds remain

breezy to locally windy Sunday behind the front, but should

remain well below Advisory levels. The fast westerly flow pushes

one more shortwave through the region for Monday, with a

continuation of the rain/snow showers, cool temperatures and

breezy winds. Models are mixed in trying to introduce a weak

ridge for Tuesday and Wednesday which would dry out most of East

Idaho and allow for a slight warming trend. Ensembles differ on

the strength of the ridge, so there is a bit of uncertainty

headed into the latter half of the week with respect to

temperatures and precipitation potential.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR to prevail through the overnight and into the first half of

the day on Saturday. Things will begin to change later today

with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching weather system

that will bring unsettled weather to the area throughout the

weekend. Expect southerly winds to increase regionwide around

sunrise tomorrow (10-15 kts) with SCT/BKN cigs likely already 

in place by that time. CIGs will gradually lower throughout the 

day tomorrow with perhaps MVFR conditions reaching KSUN by the 

afternoon hours tomorrow along with showers. Precip isn't 

expected at the other eastern Idaho terminals until after 18Z 

but it will need to be added on the next forecast. Bottom line, 

expect less than ideal aviation conditions for much of the 

weekend. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1213 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Dry weather and light winds are likely today. A 

storm system arrives for Saturday. This will bring wetting rains 

throughout the weekend. Minor snow accumulation is possible around 

6000 feet, but the more significant accumulations will likely be 

above 7000 feet. Breezy conditions will arrive on Saturday and are 

likely to continue through the weekend.



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...13

LONG TERM...DMH

AVIATION...McKaughan

FIRE WEATHER...13