FXUS65 KPIH 062345 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 545 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers and high mountain snow showers return Monday and Tuesday, with increasingly breezy to windy conditions Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as well. - Dry and warm ridge returns Wednesday into next weekend, with 70s returning to the forecast for some areas starting Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Satellite imagery shows ridge over Intermountain West, with ridge axis over West Idaho/East Oregon. Generally clear skies prevail over East Idaho this afternoon. Trough off PacNW coast shows well defined shortwave axis arriving along the coast. Ridge axis shifts overhead tonight, then east during the day Monday. Moisture begins spilling into the central mountains after sunrise Monday, though the better chances for precipitation arrive during the afternoon. Not confident about the threat for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Believe that the best instability remains west of the forecast area during prime heating, so will leave mention out for now, but would also not be surprised to see a lightning strike or two this time of year. Breezy winds develop during the day through the Snake Plain and higher elevations. Temps warm some 5 degrees above today's highs on southerly flow ahead of incoming trough. Showers spread east through the afternoon and evening coincident with shortwave trough axis, and recent HRRR runs indicate potential gust potential 35-40 kts, which does lend SOME credence to thunder potential later in the day. Flow flattens toward zonal during the night, shifting any shower focus to higher elevations generally favored in orographic westerly flow, mainly central mountains and eastern highlands. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A tight pressure gradient looks to be in place across the area on Tuesday with a trough to our north pushing slowly more poleward. Wind Advisories look very likely across the Arco Desert and potentially into the Snake Plain as all of eastern Idaho looks to be on the breezier side. Precipitation will be focused mainly across the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands and this precip will push north along with the trough into the evening hours and into the early part of the day Wednesday. This should leave much of the area dry as we get into Wednesday but the pressure gradient will remain tight with breezy to windy conditions continuing as high pressure builds over the area throughout the day. Temps Tue and Wed will run around seasonal levels just a touch above seasonal norms but these will become well above normal, by 10 to 15 degrees, as we get into Thursday and Friday with valley temperatures likely to climb into the 70s for daytime highs under mostly clear skies. The pattern changes once again as we get into the weekend with models trending towards another trough moving into the Pacific NW. There remains a bit of disagreement as to timing, placement and depth of the aforementioned trough which will ultimately have a huge impact on the forecast. For now, ran with NBM given all the uncertainty but there is certainly much that remains up in the air with the forecast as we get into next weekend. Temps could be much colder based on some model solutions but it's just too early at this point. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control with clear skies and light winds. Clouds will begin to increase from west to east tonight into Monday morning as a trough moves into the region. Precipitation will likely reach thevicinity of KSUN sometime in the late morning/early afternoon where VCSH and SHRA has been introduced. Expect increasing winds, clouds and precipitation chances throughout eastern Idaho late tomorrow afternoon and evening. While the latest HREF probability of thunder shows a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, have kept the mention out of the TAFs at this time and will evaluate on future TAF issuance for potential timing. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMH LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...MacKay