FXUS65 KPIH 040341 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 941 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled conditions return Monday and Tuesday. - Lake Wind Potential Tuesday. - Another round of Frost/Freeze Wednesday AM. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026 Satellite imagery shows split flow pattern with deep low off California coast and shortwave dropping through Montana in northern stream flow. There is still a low chance of seeing isolated convection this afternoon across higher elevation areas, but surface dew point depressions are quite low. Confidence leans toward virga showers with an occasional sprinkle this afternoon and early evening. Split flow collapses slightly into Monday as coastal low shifts inland slightly and starts to open, allowing moisture to pull north into East Idaho. Thunderstorm activity increases, especially across the southern highlands. Sounding profiles look favorable for gusty winds with potential for brief moderate rainfall, though most areas will see little precipitation. Shortwave feature for Tuesday drops frontal boundary south across the forecast area early in the day. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue mainly over higher terrain. Slightly cooler temperatures and gusty northerly flow will be in place. For winds, blended above NBM deterministic towards the 75th percentile, keeping forecast below general Wind Advisory criteria. But, a Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed for American Falls Reservoir, with rough chop piling up at the south end near the dam under the influence of the northerly winds. Another night of frost/freeze is looking more confident as NBM probabilities support more than 50% chance of overnight lows dropping below freezing for the northern portions of the Snake Plain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. It does look like a one- and-done cold snap as upper ridge rebounds for the remainder of the week with a return to a warming trend and a greater than 50% chance of several areas meeting or exceeding 80 degrees for highs by Friday. GFS and ECMWF models this morning continue to show shortwave pushing through the PacNW and across Montana late Friday into the weekend, collapsing the ridge and reintroducing unsettled conditions to East Idaho for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 941 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026 VFR conditions will continue throughout tonight and most of Monday. Very little cloud cover will be found tonight, but it will begin to increase on Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday afternoon into the evening as we get more influence with general troughing over the area as a low moves to our south. Given that we have a low, but widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms at all TAF sites except BYI tomorrow, have added more PROB30 or VCSH with this issuance. Max wind gusts with a storm look to be around 30 kts. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...AMM