FXUS65 KMSO 250846 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 246 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy today with gusts to 30-40 mph in Lemhi County and southwest Montana. - Pacific storm system this opening weekend of rifle season into early next week. This will bring winter weather conditions to the mountains and a rain/snow mix to the valleys. - Precipitation amounts continue to trend slightly downward. This trend is less noticeable for up-slope regions of Idaho where significant precipitation is likely. Winds are one of the primary impacts of the ongoing storm and will continue through today. When combined with soaking rains or heavy, wet snow at high elevations, there is an increased risk for downed trees and potential power outages. These strong winds will also help freeze wet roads faster once colder air arrives. A cold front arrives this evening. It will bring a chance for brief heavy showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty outflow winds, as it tracks west to east. This front will bring much colder temperatures and crashing snow levels, dropping them to about 4,000 feet. This will signal the beginning of widespread winter driving conditions over most mountain passes, especially along the Montana-Idaho border. Any roads that were previously wet may begin to freeze rapidly overnight, and accumulating snow on roads will become a concern. During this time, treat shiny wet roads as if they are icy because they just might be. Light valley rain and mountain snow showers will continue in a moist and cool westerly flow through Sunday. By Sunday night into Monday morning, a third (yet weaker) cold front moves through, reinvigorating another round of showers. At this time, temperatures may cool enough to mix snowflakes down to valley locations above 3,000 ft. No significant valley impacts are anticipated, but we will continue to monitor the potential for isolated slick spots during the Monday morning commute. The most significant change to the forecast has been the continual downtrend in precipitation amounts. The one area holding on to significant precipitation is the up-slope-favored region of north- central Idaho, where 0.5-1.5 inches of rain (below 6,000 ft) is still anticipated. Following the weekend's cold fronts, temperatures will settle into a much cooler, but more seasonable, pattern for late October. Modeling is aligning on another disturbance moving through Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another chance for showers. The late-week / Halloween time frame is also looking rather stormy, with the potential for another fetch of Pacific moisture pushing inland. && .AVIATION...Expect MVFR conditions with local IFR across north- central Idaho due to steady rain and lower ceilings this morning. Valley winds are expected to pick up again late morning this morning for areas mainly south of I-90 with gusts to 25-35 kts at KSMN and KBTM. Shower coverage expands areawide on Saturday afternoon and evening with accompanying lowered ceilings and reduced visibility. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM MDT Sunday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region... West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM PDT Sunday for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ Sunday to noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Monday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$