FXUS65 KMSO 191846

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

1246 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



-  Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy through Friday bringing

   elevated fire weather concerns especially across southwest

   Montana.



-  A few light showers possible, mainly confined to the mountains

   of northwest and west-central Montana.



-  Cold front passage on Saturday will bring increased winds, a 

   chance for precipitation, and a return to more seasonal 

   temperatures.



The Northern Rockies remain situated under the southward side of

an upper level ridge in a relatively active and warm southwest

flow.



The main story through Friday will continue to be the unseasonably

warm and dry conditions with westerly winds increasing. The

warmest and driest conditions (with wind gusts of 25-35 mph) will

be found south of the I-90 corridor and especially in southwest 

Montana and portions of Lemhi County.



While most areas will remain dry, a few light showers are

possible, mainly confined to the higher terrain of northwest and

west-central Montana through Friday morning. Accumulations and

impacts from these showers will be minimal. 



A cold front on Saturday brings a temporal maximum of wind and gusts

especially in the afternoon. This front will bring a period of

light to moderate convective precipitation. Following the frontal

passage, temperatures will drop back to near-seasonal averages and

with some light snow, with minimal to no impacts, possible into 

late Saturday night. A drying trend will take hold for the 

remainder of the weekend.





&&



.AVIATION...VFR weather conditions will largely prevail across the

airspace through tonight and into Friday. A few light showers in

west-central and northwest Montana (KGPI, KMSO) could bring 

localized MVFR reductions through the overnight and morning hours.



The primary aviation concern remains gusty winds and significant

turbulence. Recent PIREPs indicate turbulence around 11,000ft MSL,

and a SIGMET is currently in effect for severe turbulence near and

along the Continental Divide up to 16,000ft MSL due to strong

low-level winds and mountain wave activity. At the surface, west

to southwest gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected this afternoon 

and evening with the strongest gusts anticipated toward KBTM and

to a lesser extent KHRF and KSMN. Winds will decouple overnight

before increasing again by late-morning on Friday.





&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$