FXUS65 KMSO 190950

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

350 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



-  Thunderstorms capable of gusty outflow winds and brief heavy 

rain each afternoon/evening through Wednesday



-  Warm today, but hot this weekend



The Northern Rockies will continue to be under southwesterly flow

aloft today. Temperatures will be quite warm today as afternoon

readings will be around 10 degrees above seasonal averages. This

afternoon's convection appears to be over north central Idaho into

west central Montana. Once again these storms will be capable of

gusty erratic outflow winds along with moderate to heavy rainfall. 



A dry cold front is still on track to traverse the region on

Wednesday. This front will cause cooler temperatures, but

increased westerly winds. Wednesday afternoon's convection is

expected to be more across Lemhi county into southwest Montana. 



A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the

region this weekend. Temperatures will rise to around 12 degrees

above seasonal averages by Saturday afternoon. The lower valleys

of north central Idaho will once again approach heat advisory

criteria as temperatures soar into over 100 degrees with Riggins 

area approaching 110. Monsoonal moisture will be slowly drifting

northward cause a few high based showers and thunderstorms across

Lemhi county and southwest Montana by Sunday afternoon. 



&&



.AVIATION...Fair flying conditions will persist over the region

today. This afternoon's convection is expected to be across north

central Idaho into west central Montana mainly impacting KHRF and

KMSO. Once again these storms will be capable of producing gusty

erratic winds along with moderate to heavy rainfall. 



&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$