FXUS65 KMSO 060825

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

225 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



-  Showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday night into

   Thursday for northwest Montana



-  Warming for the remainder of the work week



-  A weak disturbance on Saturday causing slightly cooler

   temperatures and potential of light showers near Glacier NP



Satellite imagery early this morning indicates a region of dry 

air over the West Coast indicative of a ridge of high pressure. 

The Northern Rockies will remain under northerly flow aloft ahead 

of this ridge today. Expect daytime high temperatures to start to 

creep up above normal, where they will stay for the remainder of 

the work week. Mostly clear skies this morning will give way to 

increasing high clouds this afternoon. Moisture riding over the 

ridge embedded in the northerly flow will arrive tonight, 

accompanied by a weak disturbance primarily affecting northwest 

Montana in the form of showers and thunderstorms during the 

overnight hours. Some high-resolution model soundings indicate 

enough instability for isolated airmass thunderstorms capable of 

producing small hail, lightning, and gusty outflow winds of about 

30-40 mph. 



Northwesterly flow aloft takes over on Thursday as the ridge 

broadens and moves closer to the Northern Rockies. Showers will 

linger over the Continental Divide including Glacier Park through 

Thursday, while the rest of the Northern Rockies sees decreasing 

clouds. Another weak disturbance arrives on Saturday. About 70% of

ensemble model solutions are onboard with widespread cloud cover 

and light precipitation. Rain or no rain, Saturday will bring a 

cool-down to near-normal daytime high temperatures.





&&



.AVIATION...Winds will take on a more westerly character today,

though stay elevated this afternoon. Expect gusts of about 20

knots this afternoon at KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN. High clouds will

increase this afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches from the

north. KGPI will see chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight

by about 07/0300Z. Chances for thunderstorms are about 10-15%. 

Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of small hail,

lightning, and gusty outflow winds of about 25-35 knots.  





&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$