FXUS65 KMSO 031940

AFDMSO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Missoula MT

1240 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:



- High pressure this week will result in warm temperatures and

  stagnant air



- Record-breaking daytime high temperatures on Thursday



- A pattern shift Feb 8-10 will bring increased precipitation

  chances



A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies

today and last through the remainder of the work week.

Temperatures will remain well above normal. The forecast for

Thursday shows record-breaking (or tying) daytime high 

temperatures for Missoula, Kalispell, and Butte. The lower Salmon

River valley could see 70 degrees. One caveat to the high 

temperature forecast will be atmospheric stability and the ability

for some valleys to hang onto colder air under inversions. 

Inversions will likely trap low stratus and fog in the valleys, 

particularly across northwest Montana and Clearwater County. 



Looking ahead, ensemble clusters continue to suggest a pattern shift

early next week. Current guidance indicates the ridge will break 

down as an upper-level trough digs along the West Coast. This 

transition would open the door for increased precipitation chances

and a cooling trend, though confidence regarding the strength of 

this system remains low for both the timing and intensity of the

trough.





&&



.AVIATION...

GOES satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure building 

across the western US, with the Northern Rockies under 

northwesterly flow aloft. Waves of high clouds will continue to 

stream into the area from the northwest through tonight into 

Wednesday morning. Patchy areas of valley fog and low stratus will

develop tonight given stable conditions under the ridge. This 

rings true for KGPI and KMSO, where probabilities of LIFR 

visibility associated with fog is 15-20% between 04/1000-1500Z. 



&&



.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MT...None.

ID...None.

&&



$$