FXUS65 KLKN 240921

AFDLKN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

221 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



Updated at 205 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

 



* Dry today and tonight with near-normal temperatures



* Showers across mainly Northern Nevada this weekend



* Much cooler temperatures for the weekend and early next week



&&





.UPDATE...

Issued at 205 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Forecast continues on track for today through tomorrow. No changes

are required for this package.



&&





.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Wednesday)



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Dry today with seasonal temperatures.

Enjoy it while it lasts however, as an atmospheric river begins 

its landfall along the Pacific coast. Impacts in our coverage area

begin Saturday in the form of precipitation in northern Nevada 

and strong winds across the area, with gusts expected to be 35-40 

mph. A surface cold front associated with the upper system will 

also begin its passage across the area. Temperatures are expected 

to drop into the 40s to low 50s behind the front and into the 20s 

overnight into Sunday. That said, snow levels are expected to 

remain above 6500 feet and valley snow is generally not expected, 

outside of high elevation valleys in northern Elko county. 

Precipitation totals Saturday through Monday have come up slightly

in central Nevada to a maximum of 0.05 inches while expected 

totals have generally decreased in northern Nevada. Mountain peaks

are still expected to see the bulk of the precipitation, up to 

about 0.75 inches, but valley locations are now expected to max 

out around 0.15 inches. Precipitation is expected to continue in 

northern Nevada through Monday afternoon but the bulk of the 

accumulation will be on Sunday. Daytime temperatures continue to 

be in the 40s and 50s through Monday before warming into the 50s 

for Tuesday and 50s and 60s for Wednesday. Overnight temperatures 

are expected to continue dropping below freezing across much of 

the area through the rest of the forecast. Expected weather 

conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday are mostly clear skies and 

light winds.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the

atmospheric river event and its impacts on our area. A wetter

scenario than the one detailed in the current forecast still

exists in the ECMWF ensemble but it’s only a few hundredths wetter

at this point and has nearly merged with the NBM forecast. There

is also strong model divergence for the path of the trough

associated with the AR event after it reaches the Rocky Mountains,

leading to lower confidence in conditions over Nevada for Tuesday

and Wednesday. At this time there is moderate confidence in calm

weather and low to moderate confidence in the temperature trends

outlined above.



&&





.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the 

next 24 hours. Mostly sunny today with winds at or below 10 knots.

Clouds move in across Northwest NV later this evening, with 

mostly cloudy skies at KWMC by Saturday 12Z. 



&&





.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated southerly winds Friday in and near FWZ 

437 as a robust cold front approaches the forecast area from the 

northwest. Gusts 25 to 30 mph can be expected. Front moves into 

Nevada early Saturday morning, producing widespread gusty winds 

with south-southwesterly winds shifting northwesterly by Sunday. 

Wetting rain and snow are expected across northern Nevada and 

thunderstorms embedded along the cold front are not anticipated. 

Conditions remain mostly dry across central Nevada and little to 

no precipitation accumulation is expected at this time, this 

includes zones 426, 425, 427. Lingering light showers across 

northern Nevada on Monday morning with breezes present across the 

forecast area. Weather becomes fair beginning Tuesday, persisting 

thru at least mid week.



&&





.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. 



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...96

AVIATION...96

FIRE WEATHER...96