FXUS65 KLKN 070915

AFDLKN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

215 AM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures continue to trend upward headed into the

work week. A system will clip the northern border of the state on

Monday bringing mainly clouds and perhaps an isolated shower to

the northern portion of the state. High pressure and hot weather

build into the region this week with many high temperature records

in jeopardy.



&&



.SHORT TERM...Monday into Wednesday morning



The ridge responsible for tranquil weather over the weekend gets

pushed eastward Monday morning as the axis of a large upper level

trough clips the northern border of the state by Monday evening.

Within the axis of said trough is a jet streak oriented west-east

that slides across northern NV by Monday evening. The bulk of

energy and vorticity remains north of the state closer to the

parent low pressure center but PW values in the 0.5-0.6 inch range

and CAPE values between 40-80 J/kg over northeastern Elko county

could touch of an isolated shower or thunderstorm Monday afternoon

if enough forcing from the system to the north makes its way into

the area. Otherwise, cloud cover and a few hundredths of rainfall

accumulation are possible along the northern border by Tuesday

morning.



On Tuesday, zonal flow in the axis of the broad trough remains in

place over the state but gradually begins to amplify as ridging to

the south builds into the SW CONUS by Tuesday night and Wednesday

morning. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will creep closer to 70 across

the area and this trend will continue into the week as the ridge

strengthens overhead.





.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. 



Dry and warm conditions continue through the second half of the

week as upper level ridging builds back in over Nevada.

Temperatures on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be

unseasonably warm, with both maximum and warm-minimum temperature

records at risk of being broken on all three days. High

temperatures will be in the 70s and a few low 80s, while lows will

be in the upper 30s to low 50s. Friday afternoon, an upper trough

off the Pacific coast begins its passage across the United States,

dropping high temperatures back into the 60s for Saturday and

bringing some showers and potentially a rumble of thunder near the

Oregon/Idaho border. Dry weather returns for Sunday but cooler

conditions continue, with high temperatures returning to near

normal in the 50s. Long term model trends suggest a more volatile

pattern returning to start next week, with alternating ridging and

troughing leading to a pattern of warming then cooling weather

next week.



&&



.AVIATION...Increasing and lowering clouds this morning as trough

energy clips Northern NV. The probability of rain at KWMC KBAM 

and KEKO today is only around 10% with the passing system. Winds 

however will become gusty today, with SW winds of 12-17kts gusting

20-30kts at most terminals from roughly 18Z-02Z. 



&&



.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&



$$



99/94/96