FXUS65 KLKN 040858 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 158 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of valley rain and high mountain snow continue thru Tuesday * Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon * Daytime high temperatures climb to the low and mid 80s by Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026 The current forecast remains on track and no significant updates are required. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level low situated along the California coast continues to slowly move inland today and tomorrow resulting in periods of precipitation lasting thru Tuesday night. Snow levels will be high and are expected to remain around 8-9000 feet thru the duration of the event. Therefore expecting most precipitation will fall as rain save for the highest mountain ranges across the forecast area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be present each afternoon today and tomorrow as daytime heating increases convective potential. Cloud to ground lightning and strong and erratic wind gusts around 45 mph will be the main hazards. The highest precipitation accumulations will be found along a southwest to northeast line from northwest Nye County to central Elko County. 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall is forecast thru Tuesday night. An upper level ridge will move in from the west as the low exits to the east and weather clears thru Tuesday night. This will lead to dry conditions and warming temperatures beginning Wednesday. As a result, high temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s for many locales by Friday, roughly 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will also be warmer than normal, residing in the 40s as compared to normal lows that would otherwise be in the 30s. Low confidence and low probability (10%) for light rain showers across northern Elko County Saturday as a progressive shortwave trof ejects across the PacNW from a robust upper level low poised over the Gulf of Alaska. However, the shortwave will effectively flatten the ridge and render daytime high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than observed Friday. Dry weather and warming temperatures Sunday and Monday as the ridge reamplifys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in precipitation thru Tuesday. Moderate confidence in afternoon thunderstorm potential. Low to moderate confidence this weekend. Opted for a blend of various model outputs and WPC guidance for PoP and weather fields as NBM continues to come in much too bullish. Otherwise little deviation from NBM elsewhere. && .AVIATION...Period of active weather will impact all terminals thru Tuesday night. Some combination of -SHRA, VCSH, -TSRA, and VCTS is forecast at times with the greatest TS threat present during the afternoon today and tomorrow. Main threats associated with any TS that move on terminal will be cloud to ground lightning and strong and erratic wind gusts around 40KT or 45KT. The prevailing flight category will be VFR though any SH or TS that move on terminal may produce temporary MVFR conditions. Afternoon breezes will also be present with gusts 20KT to 25KT. && .FIRE WEATHER...Active weather will be present thru Tuesday night including rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms. The greatest rainfall accumulation will be focused in and near zone 427 where between 0.25 and 0.50 inches is expected. Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered with areal coverage effectively including the entire forecast area this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms again expected Tuesday afternoon though areal coverage will be focused along a southwest to northeast swath that will more or less exclude zones 437, 426, and the southern half of 425. Cloud to ground lightning will be present along with the typical gusty and erratic outflow winds of around 45 mph. Afternoon breezes will also be in place across the forecast area, gusts 20 to 30 mph. Fairer weather Wednesday and thru the end of the week though afternoon breezes will persist, primarily across northern Nevada. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92