FXUS65 KLKN 030754

AFDLKN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

1154 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1151 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



* High pressure this week over the Great Basin will threaten

  several high temperatures records across the area Tuesday

  through Thursday



* Potential for precipitation and gusty winds returns to NV 

  beginning early next week



&&





.UPDATE...

Issued at 1151 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



No changes were made to the forecast at this time.



&&





.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Sunday)



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure builds back into the

region on Tuesday after an unimpactful dry trough passes through 

the Great Basin Monday evening. Under the ridge and HPC the trend 

of unseasonably warm temperatures continues. This will threaten 

several high temperature records at our area climate sites through

Thursday.



Friday the ridge begins to egress to the east allowing for a

change in the dry, warm weather pattern that has plagued the

reason for the better part of a month. A longwave trough will

begin to fill the vacated space by Saturday night. A series of

shortwaves in the axis of the parent trough will make their way

into the Great Basin by Sunday evening. As the longwave axis

pushes into the western CONUS the pressure gradient will begin to

tighten increasing westerly wind speeds Monday and Tuesday. 



Moisture availability also returns to the region as the first

shortwave on Monday will bring with it a slug of moisture. This

will increase precipitation chances mainly across northern NV 

though model confidence with the system is very low. Temperatures 

do not drop considerably with this first wave so a valley 

rain/mountain snow scenario appears most likely at this time. 

Ensemble clusters Days 6-9 depict at least a temporary reprieve 

from high pressure over the western half of the CONUS signaling a 

potentially active weather pattern for mid February in the Great 

Basin.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high in high

pressure keeping temperatures warm enough to threaten many climate

sites high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. A change in the

pattern continues to take shape in the long term though confidence

is low for many variables including precip chances, precip type,

timing, and accumulations thus far. No major edits needed for the

grids at this time.



&&





.AVIATION...



VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next

24 hours, with winds less than 10KT.



&&





.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...96/99

AVIATION...96/94