FXUS65 KGJT 242315 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 515 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny skies and near normal temperatures return to much of the region tomorrow as high pressure builds. - Our next weather system arrives Sunday into Monday brining breezy winds region wide and accumulating snowfall to the northern mountains. - A drier, warmer trend is developing for Tuesday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A weak upper-level ridge over the Plains has caused the low pressure system responsible for yesterday's bout of storms and snow to stall out over south-central Colorado. This has resulted in continued cloudiness with isolated showers and storms over the southern and central mountains and adjacent valleys. Little, if any, additional accumulating snowfall is expected. The low finally scoots out to the southeast tonight giving way to a weak ridge of our own leading to a warmer and drier Saturday ahead. Nighttime temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s in the valleys. Freeze Warnings are not anticipated as the valleys projected to dip below freezing have already surpassed their growing seasons. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A 130 kt upper level jet will move across the northern parts of the CWA on Sunday, leading to a breezy afternoon mainly for areas north of I-70 where there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph but a very low probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph. This jet is associated with an upper level trough where the low center will track across the Canadian provinces with the southern edge of the trough skirting through our northern CWA. The jet quickly lifts north by Monday morning, so with this, moisture increases although it does not look very abundant as PWAT anomalies approach 150 percent of normal on average. The better moisture and dynamics remains in Wyoming, and therefore due to the proximity of the jet, winds will be stronger north of the Colorado border across Wyoming. The limited residence time as well as the dynamics and better moisture favoring areas to our north, the snowfall has been decreasing with each run and we are now looking at about 1 to 3 inches for the northern mountains and maybe 2 to 4 inches for the Park Range with locally higher in spots. However, the probability of snow higher than 4 inches over the Park Range is about 30 percent at the highest peaks. The best period for precipitation looks to fall Sunday evening through Monday morning even though showers will begin Sunday afternoon and could continue through the day on Monday in this unsettled northwest flow as some potential vorticity lobes move through. Snow levels lower to around 7000 feet with the passage of this system Sunday night into Monday morning. Conditions should improve though the day on Monday but some low stratus could hang around Monday night given recent precipitation and skies beginning to clear. Roads at pass level could be slippery but widespread hazardous driving conditions are not expected. Temperatures on Sunday ahead of this next low pressure trough look to be fairly warm with highs running around 5 degrees or more above normal. However, highs lower to around 5 degrees below normal by Monday with the system's passage as H7 temps drop to as low as -6C across the north. Model guidance has been consistent showing a large ridge of high pressure moving in behind this departing trough by Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a return to near to 5 degrees above normal high temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 513 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Isolated showers in the eastern CWA will dissipate with sunset leaving skies mainly clear overnight and on Saturday with VFR fully in control of the forecast. Light diurnal winds can be expected as well. Will monitor satellite imagery for fog or stratus formation overnight but confidence low attm. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT