FXUS65 KGJT 241117 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 517 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional rain and mountain snow showers today, favoring the San Juans and Central Mountains, with isolated thunderstorms possible. - Sunny skies and near normal temperatures return to much of the region today and Saturday as high pressure builds. - Another round of measurable snow for the Northern Mountains arrives Sunday and Monday. - A drier, warmer trend is developing for Tuesday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Moisture wrapped around the back side of the low continues to produce some light valley rain and mountain snow across the region this morning. Some light additional accumulations above 9000 feet can be expected, but not much to write home about for non snow lovers. A blocky pattern ahead of the low will keep it slowly drifting east-southeast this afternoon. This will keep some additional showers in the forecast for our terrain(favoring the San Juans) , including an isolated thunderstorm or two. This will ride on the cloud cover forecast, with the best chances for convection along the breaks, where a little sunshine can destabilize the atmosphere a bit. Cloud free skies west of the mountains will kick off the weekend with a couple of mild autumn days today and tomorrow. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s in our lower valleys with our Utah desert valleys around 70 degrees by Saturday. Cloud cover and additional precipitation will hold off the warm-up in mountain locales until Saturday. Meanwhile tonight, precipitation will quickly taper off before sunset as drier air invades and cloud cover dissipates. Some patchy fog in a few of our basins is not out of the question, given recent moisture and clear skies. The transitory ridge moves overhead Saturday and winds return more southwesterly ahead of the next system. This will see some cloud cover working in by afternoon from northwest to southeast. This will likely shut down heating a bit early for northeast Utah, but precipitation holds off into Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 310 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Saturday night will be relatively quiet and mild, as cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching Pacific storm. The upper level jet associated with this storm will move overhead Sunday morning, bringing increasing westerly winds at the surface, with afternoon gusts of 30-40 mph possible. For areas south of I-70, this will be the extent of the impacts from this system. North of I-70, valley locations can expect a few rain showers through Monday afternoon, while areas above roughly 7000 feet will see some snow. Moisture is a bit lacking with this system compared to the last few that have moved across eastern Utah and western Colorado, with PWATs peaking around 150% of normal. And with the track of the storm keeping the best forcing to our north, rain and snow totals are a bit lackluster. The Elkhead and Flat Tops ranges are looking at 1-3 inches by Tuesday morning, with the bulk falling Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, the Park Range is particularly favored with a northwest flow system like this one, and will see 4-6 inches of snow with locally higher amounts at the highest elevations. Most of this precipitation will fall Sunday night into Monday, but shortwaves in the unsettled northwesterly flow will bring another shot of snow to the Park Range Monday night into Tuesday. Roads may be slippery at pass level, but hazardous driving conditions are not expected. Model guidance has come into better agreement that a ridge will build in behind the early week storm, bringing a period of warmer and drier conditions to the Western Slope. High temperatures, which are expected to run 5-10 degrees below normal through midweek, will warm to near-normal values. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 515 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Rain, and at higher elevations snow, showers will continue through the next 3 hours, with low clouds remaining below breakpoints at many terminals. Skies will begin to clear from west to east after 15z, with clouds and showers lingering longest over the central Colorado mountains. Some fog and low stratus may develop over the next few hours, particularly at KTEX. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible over the next 3-6 hours, particularly for higher elevation terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...BGB AVIATION...TGJT