FXUS65 KGJT 211121

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

521 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty afternoon winds on Saturday will lead to critical fire

  weather concerns where fuels are susceptible. Record highs are

  expected for most locations as well on Saturday.



- A slight cooldown is expected on Sunday before temperatures

  increase again through the coming week, with continued hot and

  dry conditions.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026



RECORD BREAKING HEAT:



High pressure continues to dominate the weather leading to 

anomalously warm temperatures and very dry conditions. We 

continue to break record highs as the high today reached 85 

degrees in Grand Junction, which is a new all-time record high 

for the month of March that was just recently set yesterday. 

Needless to say, there will likely be several records broken 

just about each day into next week. There is even a chance we 

could potentially break the all-time record for the month of 

April in the coming days, which is 89 degrees. Deep mixing is 

also occurring as a strong jet remains north of the region, 

leading to breezy afternoon winds.



FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY:



On Saturday, a shortwave tracking across the Northern Rockies 

will flatten the ridge and allow the pressure gradient to 

tighten. This will lead to stronger winds, especially north of 

I-70 where gusts could reach 30 to 40 mph, with 20 to 30 mph 

gusts elsewhere. This is all ahead of a weak cold front that 

will pass through Saturday night. Deep mixing will also lead to 

even warmer temperatures than today. The combination of hot, 

dry, and windy weather will lead to critical fire weather 

conditions where fuels are critical.



SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:



Temperatures "cool down" slightly on Sunday, but record-

breaking highs are still possible as highs will still be around 

20 degrees above normal as opposed to 25 degrees above normal 

Saturday. Moisture that accompanies the front will struggle to 

produce measurable precipitation in this hot and dry regime. The

only exception would be the highest elevations of the northern 

Divide, but even that is looking like a stretch. The ridge 

builds back in on Monday and Tuesday and dominates the weather 

pattern for much of the coming week, so the record heat and dry 

conditions continue as high temperatures average 25 degrees 

above normal.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 504 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies. Light terrain

driven winds this morning will give way to southwesterly to 

westerly winds gusting 20-30 kts after 18Z. These gusty winds 

will diminish after about 01Z, becoming light drainage winds

after 06Z.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist over the next 

several days. On Saturday, fire weather concerns look to be the 

most critical due to increased afternoon wind gusts. Areas north

of I-70 could see gusts exceeding 40 mph Saturday afternoon, 

and relative humidity is expected to drop below 10 percent 

across the entire region. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect 

for northwest Colorado on Saturday from 11 AM to 8 PM where 

fuels have been deemed critical. Regardless of fuel status, 

burning could become dangerous across all of eastern Utah and 

western Colorado and is not advised.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this 

     evening for COZ200>202.

UT...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT

AVIATION...DB

FIRE WEATHER...TGJT