FXUS65 KGJT 200520

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

1120 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and dry conditions remain through the end of the week,

  with near-record high temperatures expected.



- A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible over

  the San Juans this afternoon.



- Confidence continues to increase that moisture will return

  late this week, increasing chances of precipitation and

  bringing some cooler temperatures.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



High pressure is pretty much parked overhead and will wobble around 

for the next few days. The high has brought some moisture with it 

located mainly on the southern and eastern periphery. That moisture 

has filled in along the Divide and is enough for isolated showers 

this afternoon and evening. Not much rain is expected with these 

showers. Elsewhere the high pressure is contributing to record heat 

and dry conditions. Moisture will continue to gradually fill the 

high pressure, so by tomorrow the coverage of showers and a few 

storms expands to the southern mountains and surrounding foothills. 

Showers tomorrow may be capable of producing strong gusty winds with 

limited rain. Once again, the remainder of the area will have record 

heat and dry conditions.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



The high pressure will be directly overhead at the start of the long 

term period. Ensembles continue to indicate moisture increasing 

thanks to flow around the high pressure. The deterministic EC and 

GFS both show PWATs increasing from north to south starting Thursday 

and increasing to about 150% of normal by Saturday and by Sunday a 

second push of moisture increases this to 200%. This increased 

moisture looks to stay through the start of the work week. 

Shortwaves will rotate around the high pressure and work on this 

moisture allowing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to fire. 

Coverage will slowly increase Thursday and each day after that with 

the best coverage looking to be Sunday onwards. Cloud coverage will 

have a significant impact on whether strong convection forms in the 

afternoon or a more stratiform event occurs. If daytime heating is 

at a maximum, some storms will likely bring heavy showers to the 

region while continued cloudiness will bring a more soaking type of 

rain. These will probably be game day decisions to make on how each 

day will play out. Having said all that, the last several model runs 

have all shown this increase in moisture, showers, and storms so 

confidence is increasing that this monsoon push will come to 

fruition.



Hot temperatures on Thursday and Friday will start decreasing 

heading into the weekend dropping to near normal values by Sunday 

and possibly below Monday due to clouds and precip. About

time...



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1117 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Skies are mostly clear across the region, and will remain so

through the next 24 hours. The exception will be along the

southern and central Divide mountains, where clouds and showers

will linger. There will be a slightly higher chance of showers

or thunderstorms impacting KTEX and KDRO tomorrow afternoon,

with lightning and gusty, erratic winds the main concerns.

Otherwise, winds will be light and follow typical terrain driven

patterns. A fire located north of KEGE is producing quite a bit

of smoke that may lead to reduced visibility at the airport, and

MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...None.

UT...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...KJS

LONG TERM...TGJT

AVIATION...DB