FXUS65 KGJT 071740 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1140 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Aside from a slight chance of showers over the Elkhead and Park Ranges Tuesday and Wednesday, dry and warmer conditions are expected this week. - Near record warmth is possible Friday and Saturday. - A passing disturbance may brush the north on Sunday, though impacts appear modest. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Skies were clear beneath a ridge of high pressure over the region this morning. However, as the day progresses, the ridge will break down in response to a mid-level short wave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest today, then over the northern Rockies tonight. Cirrus moving out ahead of this disturbance will reach the area this afternoon and remain overhead tonight. Flow becomes zonal over the region on Tuesday as the short wave reaches the northern plains. A tightening of the height gradient will lead to breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the north. Meanwhile, the latest operational runs and model ensembles indicated little to no chance of showers associated with the system's passage on Tuesday. However, in contrast, the latest National Blend of Models held onto to low chance PoPs over the ELkhead and Park Ranges Tuesday afternoon. Suspect this is related to input from the 'previous forecasts' component of the NBM. As this is likely the case, expect the light PoPs indicated will diminish in subsequent runs. Should the NBM prove to be correct, showers generated will be light and isolated to scattered in coverage. Despite the demise of the ridge today, temperatures will continue to warm with highs climbing to around 5 degrees above normal this afternoon. The gap between forecast lows and seasonal norms will be similarly mild tonight. Temperatures continue to rise Tuesday rising another 5 degrees on average across the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A flattened ridge across the Southwest Tuesday night will allow some fragments of Pacific moisture to stream in along a series of shortwaves in the PACNW. This will keep some cloud cover across the northern half of the CWA on Wednesday. High Temperatures in the Uinta and Yampa Basins will dip a few degrees in the wake of this disturbance on Wednesday, but surge back up on Thursday along with the rest of the region, as the ridge amplifies over the Rockies. Temperatures will average 10 degrees above climatology on Wednesday and inch higher Thursday into Saturday, with values nearing 20 degrees above normal. Desert valleys are expected to peak on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and perhaps a 90 in there down around Mexican Hat. This all culminates with the breakdown of the big ridge on Saturday. Gusty southwesterly winds are still looking like a certainty on both Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next potential system coming ashore in the West. Deterministic model spread exists with regard to amplitude of this system on Sunday. This will have some impact on cold air and moisture, as well as the collateral impacts to weather here in the CWA. Strong winds and low relative humidities could produce some near critical fire weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday around southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. While fuels remain in a spring green-up status, it seems prudent to mention in light of the dry post-winter conditions there. Models begin to spread on Sunday and Monday as this system evolves. For the time being, it looks like we could see a more progressive, unsettled pattern late Sunday and Monday with a series of waves working through. Spring in the Rockies pretty much guarantees a mixed bagof rain and snow, with some wind thrown in for good measure. There will be plenty of sunshine to enjoy this week, before we have to worry about the system next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Expect VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...DB