FXUS65 KGJT 070532 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1132 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will improve a few degrees today, approaching normal values for the early April around the region. - Skies remain mostly cloud free today and Monday, with temperatures continuing to climb through the week. - Near record high temperatures expected by Saturday, with a potential pattern shift arriving late next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The satellite imagery tells the whole story with severe clear skies across the Mountains states, just a wisp of cirrus along the northern Colorado Divide and a few dwindling cumulus south of the San Juans. With the trough off to the east over the western Plains and ridging up through the Great Basin, the northerly flow over eastern Utah and Western Colorado is keeping temperatures cool at a few below normal today, but this is changing. With the ridge shifting east over the Rockies Monday, temperatures will warm to a few to about five degrees above normal across the region tomorrow under mostly clear skies. By tomorrow afternoon, we'll see some clouds moving in from the northwest with westerly breezes ahead of the next weak system moving in mid week , but more on that below. It's a great time to get out and enjoy the mild, dry weather in the lower elevations, and the time to enjoy the snow in the mountains is dwindling. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 At the start of the long term period, the ridge axis that brought the nice weather for the last few days will be positioned over the Plains as a weak shortwave approaches. This shortwave will cause zonal flow to setup across the CWA. As this wave brushes our area, the NBM is suggesting a 10 to 30% chance of light precip across the Elkheads and Park Range from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon though minimal accumulation is expected. The deterministic NAM12, GFS, and EC are all keeping dry conditions in place so the NBM may be overdoing precip chances some. That said, with west to northwesterly flow in place, weak orographics could still support some isolated showers. Elsewhere, look for plenty of sunny skies, dry conditions, and warm temperatures. Along with the chance for precip, some gusty surface winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected Tuesday, somewhat stronger on Wednesday, as the jet streak mentioned above moves overhead. Warm surface temps will allow for deeper mixing bringing down some of the stronger winds associated with the jet. The northern valleys will be favored for the strongest winds. High pressure rebuilds into the area Wednesday night and dominates the weather through Saturday. High temperatures under this ridge will warm to about 10 degrees above seasonal averages, rising steadily each day. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will be flirting with record highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A quiet VFR forecast remains in place through this period. Some gusty winds on the terrain are expected Monday afternoon in the 15-20 mph range. These winds will quickly diminish early evening and light terrain influenced winds will continue. Some mid to upper level clouds will begin to spill into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado late Monday afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT