FXUS65 KGJT 061124

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

524 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of our

  mountain zones through tomorrow evening. 



- Freeze warning are in effect for northwest Colorado valleys

  tonight and most high to mid elevation valleys Wednesday night

  as low temperatures will drop into the 20s to near 30. 



- High pressure will return temperatures back above normal late

  week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026



Complex Spring pattern in place with a dominant northern stream

vortex centered near Hudson Bay absorbing a closed low over the

Southwest. This is creating a phased positively tilted trough 

over over a large chunk of the CONUS with an amplified ridge 

nosing into the PacNW. The Col between the SW low and northern 

trough created a moisture barrier across southeast Utah into 

west- central Colorado with the KGJT RAOB showing PWAT of 0.15 

and not far from the record min for the date. Several areas has 

single digit humidity this afternoon in this area. However up 

north in one moisture feed 1-2 inches of QPF has already fallen 

from the valleys to the top of the Park Range. Showers are also 

drifting into our far southern CWA on the fringe of the southern

stream moisture tap. A leading cold front was hung up on the 

Tavaputs/Roan Plateaus today helping to produce the cool season 

precipitation up north and actually force some stronger 

convection closer to the boundary. Water vapor imagery is 

showing the main energy in the northern trough dropping through 

northern Wyoming this evening and this has given the front a 

push over the high plateaus moisture is returning to the desert 

valleys. This energy/trough axis will drop into the northern CWA

in the predawn hours and swing out of the southern mountains by

sunset. The better focus for precipitation will therefor shift 

similarly...across the north and central through mid morning 

then mainly in south through mid afternoon with cold air showers

lingering over the high country through sunset. Then the cold 

air settles in under a much drier airmass filtering in on 

northerly flow and brings freezing temperatures again to mainly 

of the high to mid elevation valleys by Thursday morning. Winter

has return to the high country looking at webcams but so far 

impacts have been limited to the mountain corridors. That likely

changes overnight through much of the morning as this trough 

swings through and the cold air deepens. QPF from the blended 

solutions have trending downward with this run but impacts 

remain up high with the colder air increasing the snow to liquid

ratios over the next 12 hours. They have been running less than

10:1 so the 2 inches of SWE up at Tower so far means snow 

amounts are closer to a foot. So no additions to the winter 

headlines and will upgrade the freeze watches as low drop into 

the mid 20s to low 30s Thursday morning. A weak and quick moving

wave drops through the NW flow later on Thursday into early 

Friday and drops some light precipitation over the northern 

mountains but with minimal impact. Then the warm up is on under 

mainly dry conditions. The 6-10 day outlook from CPC says the 

whole picture...could we see 90s by early next week in some of 

the lower desert valleys. Stay tuned.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026



A broad area of showers is moving over southern portions of the

northern valleys and will continue to track southward this

morning. Expect ceilings to lower for KRIL, KGJT, KEGE, and KASE

over the next hour or two as showers move in. Cigs and vis will

drop to MVFR, if not IFR, at times this morning. ILS breakpoints

will be met as well. Those same TAF sites will see conditions

improve rather quickly this afternoon. Other TAF sites will then

see these same conditions though models are suggesting after 21Z

that the bulk of moisture will have shifted eastward. Clearing

conditions will allow some gusty winds to mix down to the

surface this afternoon.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002.



     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for 

     COZ001-002-007-008-011-021>023.



     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ004-010.



     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ012-

     018-019.



UT...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TGJT

AVIATION...TGJT