FXUS65 KGJT 060254 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 854 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for the Grand Valley, Moab area, and SE Utah for overnight lows dropping to the mid 20s by Sunday morning. - A warming trend kicks off Sunday onwards with near record warmth possible towards the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Most convective shower activity has come to an end with snow rates dropping off considerably. Upon looking at webcams, roads remain dry to wet depending on where snow has fallen with no accumulation on road surfaces. Satellite and radar trends indicate showers continuing to dissipate and weaken as subsidence kicks in and skies clear from the north. Therefore, decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains a few hours earlier than expiration as advisory level accumulations and rates are no longer expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 While most of the CWA is seeing pleasant conditions today, the San Juans and southern valleys are getting one more day of unsettled weather. The trough that has been over the CWA for the last few days has finally shifted to our east. Despite that, a minor piece of energy is moving across the Divide and San Juans causing increased chances for some snow and rain. Cold air aloft remains over said area with some higher CAPE values indicating this instability. Current visible imagery is showing cumulus building up as well so model guidance suggesting heavier rain and snow showers certainly seems possible this afternoon and evening. If this doesn't pan out, the advisory can be pulled down early. As far as the Freeze Watch is concerned, cloud-free skies will be the rule tonight and with efficient radiational cooling expected, overnight lows in the mid 20s can be expected for the Grand Valley, Moab area and SE Utah so the Watch has been upgraded to a Warning. Height rises Saturday night into Sunday indicate a return to spring weather, plenty of sunny skies, and warming temperatures. Highs Sunday will jump anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees from those seen today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Models are in good agreement with a transient ridge moving across eastern Utah and western Colorado Monday followed by a weak shortwave passing across the northern areas Tuesday into Wednesday bringing clouds, gusty west winds and isolated light snow showers to the Uintas and Park Range with little if any accumulation. Look for temperatures to warm five to ten degrees Monday and another few degrees each day through the work week. Behind the the shortwave, a stronger ridge builds in Thursday and Friday with clear skies and temperatures peaking near records at 20 degrees above normal in the lower valleys and 15 degrees above normal in the mountains. Friday will see winds turn southwest and gusty as ridge starts moving off to the east and the next low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. By Saturday afternoon, southwest winds will hit 15-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph across much of the region. Though the fuels may still be moist now, it's getting to be time for that fire season to start up, and with the stronger winds and high afternoon temperatures later this week, it won't take long for the fuel to dry out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 550 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Scattered showers will continue across southwest Colorado this evening, temporarily bringing MVFR/IFR conditions to KTEX, KGUC and KDRO with reduced CIGS and VSBY. Most shower activity should dissipate after sunset with some lingering activity acrossthe south through midnight before coming to an end with clearing skies overnight. VFR conditions prevail elsewhere with VFR area wide overnight through Sunday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ006. UT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ022-027. && $$ UPDATE...MDA SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT