FXUS65 KGGW 190522

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

1122 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday with some

  records challenged.



- There is an opportunity for elevated fire weather conditions

  across the area this afternoon.



- Temperatures will cool closer to normal this weekend as chances

  for precipitation move into the area again.

  

  

&&



.DISCUSSION...



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: 

A chinook pattern remains over the area with the area toward the

northern end of a heat dome ridge across the western US. The

relative humidity dropped as low as the mid teens over the

southwest part of the area Wednesday, which is much lower than the

NBM predicted. This leads into the idea of tomorrow being similar

to today and there is elevated fire weather concerns for tomorrow

as a result. High clouds overhead and snowfall this past weekend

are limiting factors for the fire concern. While record high

minimum temperatures are very likely, some more record high maximums

in the 70s have potential to be broken through Friday.



The broad upper level ridge in place remains into Friday before 

starting to break down, maintaining the unusual warm and dry 

pattern. The next chance for any light precipitation will be over 

the weekend along with some moderation in temperatures toward 

normal.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Decreased humidity to near the ensembles minimum and blended

temperatures with the NBM 75th percentile through Friday due to

observed model bias with minimal boundary layer moisture to be

added.



There is low to moderate confidence on elevated fire weather 

conditions occurring tomorrow based on fuel uncertainty. There is

very high confidence on temperatures being above average through 

Saturday.





&&



.AVIATION...



LAST UPDATE: 0500Z



FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR



DISCUSSION: Some chinook mid to high level clouds are expected to

continue moving through the area. 



LLWS: There is moderate to high confidence of west northwesterly 

low level wind shear occurring around KGGW, KOLF and KSDY from 

09Z to 16Z.



WIND: West at 5 to 10 knots, increasing to to 15 to 25 knots with

gusts up to 35 knots after 16Z.





&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.





&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow