FXUS65 KGGW 050802

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

202 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Today begins cooler than normal with a possible hard freeze this

  morning as well as again tonight. Then, a warm up is expected 

  through Friday.



- Weak disturbances will bring isolated rain showers today and

  scattered rain showers Thursday across the southwest. QPF does 

  not look significant.



- A cold front Friday night brings a second chance fore precip

  again Saturday. QPF with this passage also does not look overly

  significant.





&&



.DISCUSSION...



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:



Anonymously strong upper low over south-central Canada will be 

more like Jabba The Hutt this week as it moves slowly to the east,

keeping northeast Montana under north to northwest flow through 

the week. The southwest part of the forecast area could have

isolated rain and snow showers today. Expect temps to remain well

below normal with highs mainly in the 40s today. Cold high

pressure moves in tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies

which will drop lows into the lower to mid 20s tonight for many 

area, giving most a hard freeze.



The upper low drifts east a bit Wednesday allowing some warmer air

to move in with a continuation of limited moisture available for 

precipitation.



By late in the week, periodic shortwaves will pass through and 

bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. THis

will mostly favoring elevated areas in the southwest zones both

THursday and Saturday. However, most ensemble members at this 

time show less than a tenth of an inch for any rain amounts in

these zones. 



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM Deviation include lowering temperatures tonight a few degrees

across the board to match up with neighbors and decreasing MinRH 

Today and Wednesday afternoons a few percent to do the same.

Confidence is MODERATE to HIGH for the extent of warming and 

further drying later this week based on advancement of upper 

ridging to the west. After midweek there is very little model 

agreement in the strength and location of troughing and closed 

lows. 



Confidence in rain is LOW to MODERATE for rain Thursday and 

Saturday. 



TFJ/GAH/GFF





&&



.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z



FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR



DISCUSSION: Low VFR and mid level clouds are expected today across

the region. Skies will clear tonight as high pressure moves into

NE Montana. 



WIND: North to NW at 10 knots or less through the mid morning. 

Increasing to 10 to 15 knots gust 20 knots this afternoon. Winds

will become light and variable this evening. 





&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow