FXUS65 KGGW 050407

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

1007 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Today begins cooler than normal with a possible hard freeze this

  morning as well as again tonight. Then, a weak warm up is 

  expected through Friday.



- A weak disturbance will bring scattered rain showers across the

  southwest Thursday. QPF does not look significant.



- A cold front Friday night brings a second chance fore precip

  again Saturday. QPF with this passage also does not look overly

  significant.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:



Anonymously strong upper low over south-central Canada will be 

more like Jabba The Hutt this week as it moves slowly to the east,

keeping northeast Montana under north to northwest flow through 

the week. The cyclonic nature of it through this morning may bring

and isolated snow flurries or two to the far northeast. Expect 

temps to remain well below normal with highs mainly in the 40s 

today and readings dropping into the lower 20s tonight for many 

area, giving most a hard freeze.



The upper low drifts east a bit Wednesday allowing some warmer air

to move in with a continuation of limited moisture available for 

precipitation.



By late in the week, periodic shortwaves will pass through and 

bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. THis

will mostly favoring elevated areas in the southwest zones both

THursday and Saturday. However, most ensemble members at this 

time show less than a tenth of an inch for any rain amounts in

these zones. 



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM Deviation include lowering temps Tuesday night a degree or two

across the board to match up with neighbors and decreasing MinRH

Today and Wednesday afternoons a few percent to do the same. 



Confidence is MODERATE to HIGH for the extent of warming and 

further drying later this week based on advancement of upper 

ridging to the west. After midweek there is very little model 

agreement in the strength and location of troughing and closed 

lows. 



Confidence in rain is LOW to MODERATE for rain Thursday and 

Saturday. 



TFJ/GAH





&&



.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0330Z



FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR



DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday but an

isolated snow shower is possible through the early morning hours.

These are currently too low of a chance to place in the TAFs

directly. Brief MVFR visibility would be possible with any 

shower.



WIND: N at 10 kts or less through the mid morning. Increasing to 

10 to 15 kts gust 20 kts in the afternoon. Then becoming lioght

and variable during the evening through Tuesday night.



GAH 





&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.





&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow