FXUS65 KGGW 020913

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

213 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGES:

- A Winter Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of precipitation has

  been issued for parts of the area into this afternoon.



- Otherwise, dry and mild weather is expected starting on Tuesday

  through the weekend.



  

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A shortwave trough and surface front will aid in bringing an 

opportunity for a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow 

overnight thorugh today. A couple hundredths of freezing rain and 

less than an inch of light snow(dusting) is forecast with this 

disturbance across far northeast Montana. Most other locations 

will remain dry. 



Above normal temperatures are expected after tonight as a ridge 

builds into the area. At this point, Thursday appears to be the 

warmest day as a dry cold front Thursday night will bring slightly

cooler temperatures on Friday that will still be 10 to 15 degrees

above normal. The above normal temperatures continue into next 

weekend with dry weather. There will be an eye out for psome

potential hydrology concerns since Wednesday night has above 

freezing temperatures in central Montana. Also, multiple warm days

and drying in the southwest part of the area will bring fire 

weather concerns back into the picture as well.





FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deivation included allowing part of the previous forecast going 

into the next 12 to 18 hours to stand including the PoPs for the 

event current event with minor adjustments near the end with it's 

exit. Sky conditions were also updated through abbout the same 

period with exit of the current system. 



Confidence is MODERATE in accumulating freezing rain occurring 

across portions of the area this morning.



Confidence is HIGH in above average temperatures for the next 

several days. 



Confidence is HIGH that precipitation amounts on this morning 

will be below 0.03 inches.



GAH





&&



.AVIATION...



UPDATED: 0830Z



FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to IFR. 



DISCUSSION: A stationary front spread from Whitewater to Glasgow 

to Glendive has allowed low clouds to set up in these locations 

and areas to the northeast of this line. This brings moderate to 

high confidence of MVFR ceilings and moderate confidence of 

scattered IFR ceilings occurring from now through 06Z Tuesday. 

Through 00Z Tuesday, there is low to moderate confidence (20 to 40

percent) of a wintry mix, which includes freezing rain or drizzle

occurring with these conditions. MVFR ceilings should clear the

area after about 18Z Tuesday.



WIND: Light and variable through mid morning. Then W to NW and

increasing to 10 to 20kts in the late morning through the 

afternoon. Decreasing to light and W or variable again this 

evening.



GAH





&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for 

Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-

McCone-Northern Valley-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-

Wibaux.





&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow