FXUS65 KFGZ 240455

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

955 PM MST Thu Oct 23 2025



.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will slide across the

Arizona/Utah border today, bringing a few showers and

thunderstorms to this area. Drier and warmer weather is forecast 

to return from Friday onward, with gusty winds expected on Sunday

afternoon.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system is centered along the AZ/UT

border and progressing through northern Arizona this afternoon.

This has resulted in continued showers/thunderstorms along the

border from the Kaibab Plateau eastward toward Kayenta. Rainfall

amounts have ranged from a few hundredths of an inch to nearly

0.50". This activity will continue through the afternoon as the

low moves eastward along the border, with a few lingering light

showers possible through early this evening. Activity will come to

an end this evening as the low center migrates through the Four

Corners region. Elsewhere across northern Arizona, cool

temperatures and breezy winds are in store. Winds will be shifting

to the northwest through the day in association with the trough

passage.



A much quieter weather pattern is in store Friday through the

upcoming weekend as transitory high pressure moves through the

southwestern U.S. Expect temperatures to hover near seasonal

average with daytime breezes up to 20-25 mph. On Sunday, a

progressive trough moving through the western U.S. will lead to

tightening pressure gradients and enhanced west to southwest

winds, but model guidance has backed off on the strength of the

winds and peak gusts are anticipated to reach 20-30 mph.



The quiet and seasonably warm pattern is forecast to continue 

into next week with a return of large-scale high pressure to the 

region. No notable pattern changes are in sight.



&&



.AVIATION...Friday 24/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...VFR

conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds Light and variable 

or terrain driven overnight, NW-N 5-10kts after 15-18Z.



OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/06Z through Monday 27/06Z...VFR conditions,

no precipitation expected. Winds SW 5-10kts Saturday, SW 10-20kts,

gusts 25-30kts Sunday. Light and variable or terrain driven

overnight periods.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...A few showers and

thunderstorms are possible through this evening along the AZ/UT

border. Winds will be shifting to the northwest and north today

behind a trough passage, gustiest along the New Mexico border up 

to 35 mph. Dry and seasonable weather is in store Friday and 

Saturday. Winds will be northerly at 10-20 mph on Friday, becoming

southwest through west at 10-20 mph on Saturday.



Sunday through Tuesday...Expect increased southwest winds gusting

20-30 mph on Sunday, followed by lighter winds of 10-15 mph Monday

and Tuesday. Dry weather with seasonal temperatures will 

continue.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...MCT

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...MCT



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff