FXUS65 KFGZ 202255

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

355 PM MST Fri Mar 20 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Arizona will roast under a summer-like high pressure 

cell, with temperatures reaching 20 to 30 degrees above normal for 

the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Please exercise 

appropriate precautions if you are planning on any outdoor activity 

through the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

An anomalously strong area of high pressure will continue to 

promote very warm to hot conditions across northern and central 

Arizona. A bit of relief from the heat will develop over the 

weekend as the ridge flattens slightly in response to a weak upper

wave well to the north. While temperatures will be "cooler" 

relative to much of this last week, they will continue to run some

20 to 30 degrees above normal. Temperatures look to climb once 

again by midweek next week as the high drifts back to the west and

intensifies once again. At this time, it looks as though summer- 

like warmth will carry us into the end of March with low 

confidence in some relief toward the start of April.



In response to the recent heat and abnormally dry conditions, 

drying of fine fuels has already occurred. This will likely 

persist within this ridgy pattern. As the ridge flattens Saturday 

into Sunday, an increase in winds will result in elevated fire 

danger. While critical fire weather conditions are not currently 

expected, fire spread potential will increase. Winds look to 

weaken heading into next week as the upper ridge begins to 

intensify across the region once again. 



&&



.AVIATION...Saturday 21/00Z through Sunday 22/00Z...VFR conditions. 

Winds light and VRB overnight, becoming SW/W 10-15 kts with gusts 20-

25 kts after 18Z.



OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/00Z through Tuesday 24/00Z...VFR conditions 

with winds SW/W 5-15 kts each day. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Through Saturday...Very dry and historically 

warm. Daytime temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal each day, 

with large diurnal swings each night. Minimum relative humidity 

values ranging from the single digits to low teens each day. 

Friday, expect west through southwest winds 5 to 15 mph from the 

Mogollon southwest and west, with northwest winds 5 to 10 mph 

northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Winds increase from the southwest 

at 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and this may lead to some localized 

fire weather concerns.

  

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect temperatures to decrease slightly 

during this period, but still remaining at least 20 degrees above 

normal. Large diurnal swings continue at night with minimum relative 

humidity values ranging from the single digits to low teens for each 

day. Daily winds ranging from the west through southwest at 10 to 20 

mph, with gusts to 25 mph. The continuation of unseasonable heat and 

very dry conditions will dry out fuels and may lead to continued 

localized fire weather concerns.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006-037.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Austin (VEF)

AVIATION...Humphreys

FIRE WEATHER...Peterson



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff