FXUS65 KFGZ 190455

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

955 PM MST Wed Mar 18 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Much of the area will roast under a summer-like 

ridge, with temperatures reaching 20 to 30 degrees above normal for 

the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Please exercise 

appropriate precautions if you are planning on any outdoor activity 

through the weekend.



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.DISCUSSION...An abnormally strong ridge of high pressure (594 dam)

is in place over the southwest. As the high continues to largely 

wobble in place, Arizona remains in a prolonged period of record 

highs and dry conditions. Afternoon highs look to peak on Friday, 

as 500 hPa heights peak around 596 dam and the ridge becomes centered

over Arizona.



Slightly cooler temperatures (but still 15-20F above normal) set in 

by the start of next week as the high becomes suppressed to the south 

ahead of a weak shortwave. Slightly breezier conditions develop over 

the weekend before and after the shortwave, which could lead to 

enhanced fire danger. Dry conditions look to prevail for the time 

being with the no signal for any precipitation in either the GEFS or 

EPS members.



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.AVIATION...Thursday 19/06Z through Friday 20/06Z...VFR conditions.

Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, especially 

at KSEZ where winds NE 10-20kts expected from 03Z-15Z. Variable 

wind 10 kts or less on Thursday.



OUTLOOK...Friday 20/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...VFR conditions. 

SW-NW winds 5-15 kts Friday, then SW 10-20 kts Saturday. Light 

and variable or terrain driven winds overnight.



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.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and historically warm with 

daytime temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal each day. Winds each 

day SW-W 5-10 mph.  Minimum afternoon RH values very low at 5-10%.

  

Saturday through Monday...Very dry with historically warm 

temperatures peaking on Saturday. Temperatures trend downward 

starting Sunday but still remain well above average. Winds SW 10-20 

mph, with gusts to 25 mph over the weekend, easing to SW 10-15 mph 

on Monday. Minimum RH values 5-10% this weekend, increasing to 8-15% 

on Monday.  With the increased winds and low humidity, fire 

weather concerns will become more elevated.



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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006-037.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Humphreys

AVIATION...JJ

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff