FXUS65 KFGZ 061106 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 406 AM MST Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for a few showers or thunderstorms today across the northeast corner of the state. Fair and much warmer weather moves in on Thursday and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The main energy from our most recent shortwave trough has headed to the southeast. However, another weak shortwave will brush the Four Corners area today with a continuation of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northeast corner of Arizona. After that, high pressure builds over the the southwest United State ushering in dry conditions and much warm temperatures. For Today...Lingering moisture will interact with a fast moving shortwave trough brushing the Four Corners. We're not expecting much from this feature which has grown even weaker than previously indicated. As a result, any activity will remain isolated, mainly in the form of showers before Noon but with daytime heating, just enough instability for a stray thunderstorm during the afternoon. With the main trough axis stretching across southeast Arizona, pressure gradients will favor north to northwest winds, 10-20 mph south of the Mogollon Rim but 10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph from the Mogollon Rim northward enhanced by the shortwave brushing the Four Corners. A milder air mass will move in behind the trough axis with high temperature jumping up by around 10 degrees compared to Tuesday. From Thursday through early next week...High pressure will dominate the weather across northern Arizona. Look for dry conditions through Sunday. For Monday and early next week models show the ridge axis shifting east of Arizona with a more southerly flow developing. This may open the door to a slight increase in moisture and the potential for high based showers and thunderstorms, something we will be keeping an eye on. Otherwise, look for temperatures to get much warmer with daytime highs ranging 10-15 degrees above average by Friday and lasting into next week. Typical afternoon spring breezes, tending from the northwest at 5-15 mph on Thursday and Friday and from the southwest from Saturday onward as the ridge axis gradually slips eastward. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 06/12Z through Thursday 07/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA 18Z until 03Z from KRQE northward. Winds light through 15Z then becoming W to NW at 10-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts along and north of north of the I-40 corridor. Winds becoming light and variable less than 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 07/12Z through Saturday 09/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime winds variable at 5-15 kts Thursday and W to NW at 10-20 kts Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Showers and thunderstorm chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state Wednesday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Rainfall amounts will generally be light with a wetting rain not expected. Things dry out and begin to warm up on Thursday. Winds becoming NW 10-20 mph on Wednesday, NW 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 15-30% Wednesday, dropping to 9-15% Thursday. Friday through Sunday...Expect dry and much warmer weather with high temperatures rising to 10-15 degrees above average. Winds generally NW 5-15 mph on Friday, SW-W 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Saturday, NW-N 5-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 8-15% Friday and Saturday, 6-13% Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff