FXUS65 KFGZ 052000

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

100 PM MST Tue May 5 2026



.SYNOPSIS...A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger into

this evening before ending overnight. A few showers will redevelop

Wednesday, mainly in the northeast corner of the state. Fair and 

much warmer weather returns for Thursday and continues into early

next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...An upper low over southern California early this 

afternoon will move quickly eastward through northern Arizona this 

evening and off into New Mexico after midnight. A round of showers 

and a few thunderstorms will continue ahead of the low, with daytime 

heating leading to increased instability. The best coverage (40-70%)

will be along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, with

less coverage farther south/west. With the low moving in, daytime

highs today are 10-15 degrees below normal. A few showers will linger

on the back side of the low through late evening before most activity

ends by midnight. On Wednesday - a trailing shortwave dropping due

south out of the northern Rockies will clip our region. This will help

produce another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms

from the Mogollon Rim northward. Coverage is forecast to be less than

today though. Temperatures Wednesday will be around 10 degrees warmer

along/south of the Mogollon Rim with little change in northeast Arizona

due to the passing shortwave.



Thursday into early next week - dry and much warmer weather is expected

as high pressure develops over the southwest United States. Daytime

highs are forecast to be 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of

year, warmest early next week. Daily relative humidity will be quite

low, in the single digits to low teens, but winds should be relatively

light - in the 5-15 mph range with some higher gusts to 25 mph Saturday.



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 05/18Z through Wednesday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR

to brief MVFR around heavier showers or thunderstorms. Scattered

showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous between 19Z and 

03Z. A slight chance of showers remains overnight into tomorrow

over the northeast corner of Arizona. Winds S-SW 15-25kts, 

gusting to 30Z during the daytime. Light and variable after 

03Z-06Z.



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 06/18Z through Friday 08/18Z...VFR conditions,

brief MVFR possible near heavier showers. A slight chance of 

showers or thunderstorms through 00Z Thurs north and east of the

Mogollon Rim. Otherwise dry conditions expected after 00Z Thursday.

Winds SW-W 10-20kts Wednesday morning, NW 10-20kts Wednesday 

afternoon, then N 5-15kts on Thursday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Showers and thunderstorm 

chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state 

Wednesday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Rainfall 

amounts will generally be light with a wetting rain not expected. 

Things dry out and begin to warm up on Thursday. Winds becoming NW 

10-20 mph on Wednesday, NW 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 

15-30% Wednesday, dropping to 9-15% Thursday. 



Friday through Sunday...Expect dry and much warmer weather with high 

temperatures rising to 10-15 degrees above average. Winds generally 

NW 5-15 mph on Friday, SW-W 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Saturday, 

NW-N 5-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 8-15% Friday and 

Saturday, 6-13% Sunday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...JJ

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff