FXUS65 KFGZ 051843

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

1143 AM MST Tue May 5 2026



.SYNOPSIS...A chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in across

the area today with a few showers lingering over the northeastern

corner of the state into Wednesday. Fair and warmer weather 

returns for Thursday and the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...The center of an approaching low pressure system was

located along the southern California coast early Tuesday morning.

over the next couple of days this low will move across Arizona

delivering a good chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms.

Starting Thursday high pressure will usher in fair weather and 

much warmer temperatures which will last into early next week.



Today and Wednesday...The California low will move across Arizona

from west to east bringing cooler air aloft along with dynamics 

for vertical lift which will interact with moisture already in

place. Consequently, we're looking at a good chance of showers 

today across much of northern Arizona. The threat of thunderstorms

will arrive in the afternoon as daytime heating helps create 

additional instability. The low weakens and moves to the southeast

by Wednesday morning but a secondary shortwave will brush the 

Four Corners area. The result will be scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms toward the Four Corners area where dynamics

will be the strongest. Away from the trough, only slight chances 

for showers across the Mogollon Rim and Little Colorado River 

Valley. Storm total precipitation amounts will be somewhat limited

generally in the 0.10-0.20 inch range from today through 

Wednesday. The very highest mountains peaks will see some snow 

accumulation, 1 or 2 inches at best. Daytime temperatures will 

drop another 5-10 degrees today compared to Monday with the 

passing low but rebound upward by about 5-10 degrees on Wednesday 

as the low heads southeastward. Winds will remain breezy from the 

southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on today but as the low 

weakens and moves to the southeast lighter northwest winds will 

develop on Wednesday.



For Thursday through the weekend...Dry and warmer with primarily

light breezes as a shortwave ridge develops over the southwest 

United States.



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 05/18Z through Wednesday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR

to brief MVFR around heavier showers or thunderstorms. Scattered

showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous between 19Z and 

03Z. A slight chance of showers remains overnight into tomorrow

over the northeast corner of Arizona. Winds S-SW 15-25kts, 

gusting to 30Z during the daytime. Light and variable after 

03Z-06Z.



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 06/18Z through Friday 08/18Z...VFR conditions,

brief MVFR possible near heavier showers. A slight chance of 

showers or thunderstorms through 00Z Thurs north and east of the

Mogollon Rim. Otherwise dry conditions expected after 00Z Thursday.

Winds SW-W 10-20kts Wednesday morning, NW 10-20kts Wednesday 

afternoon, then N 5-15kts on Thursday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Expect scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms today over most of northern Arizona. Shower 

and thunderstorm chances become confined to the northeastern corner 

of the state Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will generally be light 

although some areas over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains could 

see a wetting rain. Winds southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph 

today, becoming northwest at 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH 

values 25-50% today, dropping to 15-30% Wednesday. 



Thursday through Saturday...Expect dry and much warmer weather. 

Winds generally northwesterly at 5-10 mph on Thursday and Friday, 

then becoming southwest to west at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph on 

Saturday. Minimum RH values 8-15% each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...McCollum

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...McCollum



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff