FXUS65 KFGZ 042054

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

154 PM MST Tue Aug 4 2026



.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain in control of our weather 

through the next week. Isolated to scattered chances for showers and 

thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain each day. Hot 

daytime temperatures are expected, with a slight cooling through 

midweek.  



&&



.DISCUSSION...Very strong high pressure continues to dominate the 

weather across Arizona, with a gradual shift to the north over the 

next few days. Dry air aloft continues to inhibit convective 

development. Additionally, the dust lofted into the air along with 

debris clouds have remained across much of central Arizona today. As 

a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 

across the higher terrain, mainly focused over eastern Arizona 

through Tuesday. Storm activity remains diurnally driven with 

showers and storms dissipating as we head into the evening. 



Heat remains the main story through much the week, especially over 

the Grand Canyon where the heat will linger through the weekend. 

Extreme Heat Warnings continue over the Grand Canyon and Glen and 

Marble Canyons through Wednesday but will likely need to be 

extended, possibly into the weekend. 



As the high starts to push to the north, an increase in moisture 

occurs and temperatures will slightly cool. The placement of the 

high looks to remain in a favorable position for the region to allow 

for the monsoon to ramp up for a couple of days as we head towards 

the end of the week. Expect daily chances for isolated to scattered 

showers and thunderstorms each day, especially across the higher 

terrain. A slight downturn in activity may occur over the weekend 

but does not have a lot of support in the operational models at this 

time. With the high not moving much, continue to expect a more 

active pattern to return with continued hot conditions.



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 04/18Z through Wednesday 05/18Z...Expect mainly 

VFR conditions. Dust from this morning should dissipate soon. SCT 

SHRA/TSRA possible from 19Z-03Z. Most storms along or to the east of 

a KFLG-KPAN line. Brief and localized MVFR/IFR possible in storms. 

Sfc winds outside of storms SW-W10-20kts in the daytime. 



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 05/18Z through Friday 07/18Z...Expect primarily 

VFR conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA possible from 19Z-03Z each day. Storms 

most likely over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona 

and moving to the SW and W each day. Sfc winds outside of storms 

generally light.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Continued very warm, due to 

the lack of rainfall. Chances for afternoon and evening showers and 

thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and White 

Mountains Wednesday. Coverage increases and pushes farther west on 

Thursday. Afternoon winds ranging from westerly to southwesterly and 

generally 5 to 15 mph, outside of thunderstorm activity.



Friday through Sunday...Above normal temperatures continue. Daily 

chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with 

the greatest coverage along, west and south of the higher terrain of 

the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds generally light.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for 

AZZ005-006.



Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009-

010-012>014-040.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...Peterson

FIRE WEATHER...Peterson



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff