FXUS65 KFGZ 041745 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1045 AM MST Mon May 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for dry and windy conditions today in advance of a weather disturbance that will deliver cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into Wednesday. Fair and warmer weather returns for Thursday and the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure was centered over the California coast this morning, approach Arizona today then move across the area from Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week. For today...The California low will draw closer ushering in strengthening pressure gradients and a cooler air mass. As a result, winds will be quite a bit stronger than on Sunday, generally south to southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. The higher wind speeds in the ranges shown will mainly be observed from the Mogollon Rim northward. Daytime high temperatures are expected to drop by 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday due to a cooler air mass but also mid- to high-level clouds spinning off the low which will limit the amount of sunshine. Moisture will gradually increase through the day but it is expected that any shower activity will hold off until Tuesday. From Tuesday into Wednesday...The center of the California low will move across Arizona from west to east. The low will bring with it even cooler air aloft along with upward dynamics. As a result, we're looking at a good chance of showers on Tuesday focused from the Mogollon Rim northward. The threat of thunderstorms will arrive in the afternoon as daytime heating helps create additional instability. The low weakens and moves to the southeast on Wednesday with only a lingering slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Storm total liquid equivalent precipitation amounts will be somewhat limited generally in the 0.10-0.20 inch range for the entire system. Daytime temperatures will drop another 5-10 degrees on Tuesday with the passing low but rebound on Wednesday as the low heads southeastward. Winds will remain breezy from the southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday but as the low weakens and moves to the southeast lighter northwest winds will develop on Wednesday. From Thursday onward...Generally dry and warmer as a shortwave ridge moves across the southwest United State from Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION...Monday 04/18Z through Tuesday 05/18Z...VFR conditions, with MVFR moving in overnight over the higher terrain, and brief IFR possible in higher terrain between 12Z-18Z Tuesday. Chance of showers moves in after 00Z into the White Mountains, spreading westward as the night and morning progresses. Snow may mix in at times between 12-18Z at KFLG. Winds S-SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-35kts daytime, diminishing a little overnight but still SW 10-20kts, gusts 25-30kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 05/18Z through Thursday 07/18Z...VFR-MVFR through 06Z Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of northern Arizona through 06Z Wed. Then shower and thunderstorm chances focus over the northeastern corner of Arizona 06Z Wed through 00Z Thursday. Winds SW 10-20kts, gusts to 30kts Tuesday. Then NW 10-20kts Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Expect dry conditions today with scatters showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. South to southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph today, decreasing to 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH between 15-30% today, increasing to 25-50% on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...Look for isolated showers across northeast Arizona on Wednesday, elsewhere dry. Dry conditions spreading across all of northern Arizona for Thursday and Friday. Winds generally west to northwest at 5-15 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH between 15-25% on Wednesday, decreasing to 10-20% for Thursday and Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff