FXUS65 KCYS 071111 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 511 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild to seasonably warm temperatures this week, along with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at times - Potential for high winds Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the prone areas - A couple low end (20%) chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northern panhandle around midweek && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A mild week is shaping up over the forecast area with plenty of sunshine for at least today. Temperatures are expected to climb well into the 60s as the upper level ridge axis temporarily hangs over the area. Conditions will still be rather breezy today, especially over the wind prone areas between Arlington and Rawlins with some gusts around 35 to 40 mph possible. Latest water vapor loop was showing a fairly pronounced shortwave pushing into the Pacific coast. This feature is progged to ride through northern Montana on Tuesday and bring more wind to the area compared to Monday. In fact, we could see some peak gusts approaching 40 to 45kts in the wind prone areas of Arlington and Bordeaux during the afternoon. These areas may also experience some good subsidence underneath the right exit region of the upper level jet. We did bump up wind speeds closer to the NBM 75th percentile on Tuesday afternoon over the majority of the forecast area. We will need to keep an eye on the potential for Red Flag Criteria to be met in some location east of the Laramie Range, but we will also need to keep an eye on the potential for increasing cloud cover which may keep the humidities from dropping into the Red Flag category. Regardless, it will be a rather nice day with afternoon highs ranging from 65 to 75. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 The ensembles/clusters are showing upper level flow becoming more northwest as we head into the middle of the week. This will tend to keep us a little cooler as weak frontal boundaries pass through areas east of the Laramie Range. These boundaries will be rather dry with limited moisture to work with, but cannot rule some light rain chances mainly north of a Lusk to Alliance line on Wednesday along with breezy conditions especially west of the Laramie Range. The upper level ridge axis is expected to park over the forecast area once again at the end of the week with afternoon highs climbing into the 70s on Friday with possibly some 80 degree reading on Saturday with NAEFS showing about 2 standard deviations above normal. The mild weather may come to an end on Sunday or early Monday as a closed upper level low sends a frontal boundary our way which may bring cooler temperatures and possibly some precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Weak high pressure will remain in control today which will limit wind speeds this afternoon except in the wind prone area around Arlington. A disturbance is expected to move into northern Montana tonight and allow for a lee side trof to develop and cause winds to shift to the south-southwest. VFR conditions will be the rule. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...REC LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...REC