FXUS65 KCYS 041959 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 159 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool airmass will descend over the Intermountain West for cooler temperatures Tuesday. - Warming resumes Wednesday as a ridge builds back in, with similar temperatures next weekend as this past weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026 The upper level trough is pushing off to the east into the Hudson Bay area. The upper level flow is kind of a mix of Northwesterly flow turning more westerly about midway then slightly southwesterly flow over the Panhandle. This flow pattern will slowly advect in the warmer drier air over the West Coast and also slowly push the upper level smoke out of our area. The WY AQA division has let the AQA expire for the Southeast Wyoming area as most of the smoke is remaining aloft and not mixing down as much but extended the AQA for the rest of the state. Looking at satellite it confirms that most of the smoke has left our region but there may be brief pockets of time today where the smoke scent may be present. The upper level ridge will slowly rebound over the Intermountain West returning the region back into our hot southerly flow. The daily high temperatures will raise from the 70's of today into the 80's on Wednesday and 90's Thursday. The 700mb temperatures will also increase from our cooler 5-6c into the 15/16c range by Thursday. Early Wednesday morning a weak shortwave will push through the region while the upper level ridge is still fairly weak. There is some vorticity and warm air advection associated with the wave to slightly increase the synoptic forcing. The thing thats in this waves favor to produce precipitation is the timing. The wave coming early in the morning allows for what marginal amount of moisture we have at the surface to be lifted when the RH will be at its highest level so rain can have a chance to make it at the surface. As for the amount, it will probably only be a couple hundredths at best with the best chances along the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Otherwise, starting Wednesday afternoon will be another streak of minimal to no precipitation chances until maybe Monday of next week. So throw on some sunglasses and put on the sunscreen because its looks to be hot and dry soon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Over the long term our CWA heats back up to the mid 90s to low 100s, bringing back our seasonal warm temperatures. As the ridge builds, warm dry air comes into the area, which will bring a risk of critical fire weather conditions throughout the week. Temperatures begin to heat up Thursday and into the weekend bringing those mid 90s to low 100s across the CWA. 700mb temperatures show values in the mid teens, supporting seasonal temperatures. Over the weekend, the ridge begins to flatten out, tightening the pressure gradient over the northern areas of the CWA, bringing stronger winds and slim chances of precipitation. Elevated fire weather conditions continue over through the weekend with the warm dry air, little to no precipitation, and marginally breezy winds. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Most terminals through this TAF period are expected to maintain VFR conditions, except CYS which will hang onto MVFR ceilings for the next hour. KLAR is the only terminal expected to have winds gusting to around 25 knots. The Nebraska panhandle terminals will remain overcast until late afternoon today. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and light winds are expected across other terminals. The smoke in the area is expected to stay around the terminals for the next few days. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...ML