FXUS65 KCYS 031750

AFDCYS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

1050 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of gusty winds possible early this morning, with

  a High Wind Watch for the Arlington and Elk Mountain area.



- Dry weather and mild temperatures expected for the rest of the

  week and into the weekend. Possible change in the weather

  pattern early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Current IR Satellite loop this morning shows mid to high clouds

rapidly moving into the area ahead of the next upper level

disturbance. Northern Pacific disturbance is forecast to dig

southeast over the area later this morning and into the

afternoon, bring a chance of scattered snow showers, with mixed

rain/snow below 5000 feet. Expect bands of light snow/rain to

develop shortly and move south through the day. Deterministic

models and short range ensemble guidance shows limited moisture

with PWATS hardly increasing at all through the day, which makes

sense given the rapid movement of the disturbance and little to

no moisture advection. However, models also show the boundary

layer pretty unstable for this time of the year with CAPE values

between 25 to 100 j/kg. With some low level convergence present,

mainly from low level winds influenced by the local terrain, 

can't rule out some brief heavy bands of snow develop along and 

east of the Laramie Range/I-25 corridor today. Further west, 

very little to no chance for these heavier snow bands due to 

even drier conditions and dewpoints likely in the low teens. 

There is some concern of a few isolated snow squall-like bands 

of snow. HRRR shows a few of these bands near the Cheyenne,

Scottsbluff, and Kimball areas...with great run to run

consistency. Environmental winds will be out of the north and 

gusty with gusts up to 45 MPH likely. These winds and locally 

heavy snow showers may result in brief, but impactful, 1/2 mile

visibility or lower conditions in heavy snow with some brief 

blowing and drifting snow possible. However, confidence is 

limited due to the lack of moisture and low areal coverage. 

Temperatures will continue to lower somewhat due to the 

northerly flow with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Expect 

these high temps to be brief and lower with the onset of thick 

cloud cover and/or precipitation. 



Tranquil weather expected for Wednesday and Thursday as all

models show a return of the seemingly (at least for this winter)

semi-permanant upper level ridge across the western United 

States. This ridge is expected to slide into the Rocky Mountain 

Region and Front Range by Thursday. Expect another warming

trend, with high temperatures returning to the mid 50s to mid

60s. Can't rule out a few locations across western Nebraska

nearing 70 (F) Thursday afternoon with 700mb temperatures close

to +3c above the surface. Winds will also be relatively light

Thursday afternoon with gusts generally below 25 MPH, so it will

likely be a pretty nice day for early February with sunny 

skies.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 333 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



The long term can be characterized by remarkably benign weather. A 

persistent upper-level ridge over the western half of the country 

will lead to dry and mild weather across the CWA. Precipitation 

chances will be nearly non-existent through the end of the week

and into the weekend as subsidence under the ridge keeps 

condiitons dry. Dry air aloft will also aid in mostly sunny 

skies throughout this time period. Well above average 

temperatures are also expected to persist across the forecast 

area after Wednesday. 700 mb temperatures will be in the 90th 

percentile and above according to NAEFS climatology. This will 

lead to high temperatures about 20 degrees above average across 

the CWA. Highs for most locations will be in the 50s and 60s, 

leading to pleasant, but far from seasonal conditions.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1049 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Mid to low-level clouds will persist at most terminals throughout 

the day as a cold front moves across the area. Precipitation will be 

possible with the front in terms of both rain and snow, with rain 

more likely during the afternoon and snow expected in the evening. 

Visibility reductions are expected, especially in light to moderate 

snow showers. IFR visibilities cannot be ruled out. Low CIGs will 

also be possible throughout the afternoon and overnight with the 

increased moisture behind the front.



&&



.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...TJT

LONG TERM...SF

AVIATION...SF