FXUS65 KBYZ 190518 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1118 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy conditions continue through Friday. Daily record high temperatures possible during this time. - Elevated wildland grassfire conditions exist through Saturday where little to no precipitation fell with the last system. - Weather system Saturday into Sunday brings average temperatures and a chance of precipitation back to portions of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday... The weather over the next week will be dominated by a stagnant high amplitude ridge over Western North America. This building high will allow for high temperatures to remain record breaking over the next few days. 700mb winds out of the west will provide even more aid in warming the region with downslope of of the terrain. Naturally, this brings into question fire weather concerns. The first thing to note is that much of the region received a good helping of precip last weekend which will fortunately keep the larger fuels out of the realm of concern. However, the finer fuels, such as grasses, should be dry enough to be taken advantage of if a fire does spark. Westerly 700mb winds downsloping off of the terrain will bring warm and very dry conditions to the entire area with the region of greatest impact to the west of Billings. RH values will be very low over the next few days. Observations Wednesday were below the forecast by quite a bit with low teens common west of Billings and localized single digits. With the pattern remaining relatively unchanged over the next two days, I expect that these locations will be able to achieve the same values, if not lower, both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be plenty warm as may locations push 80F by Friday which is roughly 30F above average. On Saturday the ridge will be shunted ever so slightly to the south allowing a shortwave trough to zip overtop. This will bring a quick moving cold front through the area allowing temperatures to return to near average values Saturday night into Sunday. Along with this cold front there is a chance for precipitation. Although snow levels will be falling throughout the event, they are forecast to start around 9kft and therefore due to the quick nature of the system, no snow is expected to fall at any of the population centers, even in the foothills. (Although a few flurries Sunday AM above 5kft could occur.) In total, no location should see more than 0.25" of liquid. As we look ahead into next week, the patten is not forecast to change much. The high amplitude ridge will dominate with quick hitting shortwaves riding on top of the anticyclonic flow through the area. There is a small signal that this ridge could break down / get shifted east towards the end of next week, however this still remains the minority of the ensemble members at this time. WMR .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday night. Expect periods of gusty west to southwest winds (20 to 35kts) in the overnight hours along the western foothills from Livingston to Big Timber to Harlowton. For the rest of the area expect winds to increase around 17 to 19z as surface inversion breaks, with westerly gusts of 20 to 30kts at times. Winds will diminish once again around 02z. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 045/081 047/085 051/072 036/061 035/063 039/070 048/072 00/B 00/N 03/W 51/U 10/E 11/E 13/W LVM 045/077 049/080 052/070 033/061 037/061 041/069 048/067 00/N 00/N 03/W 41/U 00/E 11/N 23/W HDN 040/082 043/085 047/074 034/060 032/063 037/071 045/073 00/B 00/U 03/W 62/W 10/B 11/E 13/W MLS 038/077 044/078 045/069 031/053 031/058 035/065 042/067 00/U 00/B 02/W 41/U 00/B 00/E 12/W 4BQ 040/079 044/081 047/074 035/056 034/060 037/068 045/075 00/U 00/U 00/B 41/U 10/B 00/B 12/W BHK 037/075 040/075 042/068 027/048 028/055 030/059 039/065 00/N 00/U 01/B 41/B 00/B 00/E 12/W SHR 040/080 043/082 046/078 033/056 032/063 035/070 044/074 00/U 00/U 01/B 63/W 10/B 00/B 12/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings