FXUS65 KBOU 250632

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

1232 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Potential for an impactful system late Sunday into Monday of 

  next week. Most likely impacts will be strong winds and mountain

  snowfall.



&&



.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...

Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper level low is 

currently centered over south central Colorado. It will track 

southeastward overnight and be over the Southern Plains come 

Saturday morning. A few snow showers have formed over the 

mountains and will linger into the early evening before ending as 

the airmass stabilizes and drier air moves in. Very little to no 

snow accumulation is expected. As the drier continues to move into

the area this evening skies will become mostly clear. Over far 

eastern Colorado where weak winds and better moisture at the 

surface will be, fog will be possible. However, the better chance 

for fog will be across Kansas and Nebraska. For Saturday, sunny to

mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail as weak ridging aloft 

moves into the state. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 

mid 60s to lower 70s across northeast Colorado. 



&&



.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...

Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



The base of a broad trough axis should approach the region by

Sunday with gradually strengthening zonal flow aloft. Moisture is

also expected to increase through the day, especially across the

northern mountains. There should be a few late afternoon snow

showers, though any accumulation would be minimal. 



Better lift reaches the mountains by Sunday night, with weak-

moderate QG ascent and favorable positioning of a 140kt jet

streak. Orographic snow showers should become more widespread

overnight in response. Snowfall totals will still be light in this

period given fairly modest QPF (generally <0.25") and poor snow

ratios (near 8-10:1 via the University of Utah experimental snow

ensemble). Snow showers may linger through the day Monday though

accumulations would still be minimal.



This timeframe will also mark a transition back to a cooler,

breezier pattern across most of the forecast area. Colder air

should slowly filter into the region, and mid-level flow should

increase. By Monday afternoon, 500mb flow is near 50-65kt, with

increasing mid-level subsidence... and its not surprising to see a

few model solutions with 40-50 mph gusts in the typical windy

spots in that timeframe. 



A little more uncertainty by the middle of next week, with some

guidance keeping the area in the cool/northwesterly flow aloft,

while others are quick to shove the longwave trough over to the

eastern CONUS while ridging builds back into our region.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Drainage winds

tonight will give way to slowly strengthening southeasterly winds

during the afternoon. Moderate drainage winds are expected

Saturday night. 



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...12

LONG TERM...Hiris

AVIATION...Danielson