FXUS65 KBOU 062006 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and mostly dry today through Friday, with above normal temperatures expected from Tuesday onward. - Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible Tuesday through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 For the rest of today, we'll see northerly winds across the plains with gusts up to 25 mph. Weaker northeast winds will prevail west of I-25. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will continue, with more cumulus build ups over the higher terrain. The northerly flow aloft and at the surface will keep these cumulus clouds over the higher terrain. As the airmass stabilizes this evening, cumulus clouds will dissipate leaving mostly clear skies in place for tonight. Winds will also weaken towards sunset as the airmass decouples. Light winds and mostly clear will lead to a cool night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s across northeast Colorado. Upper level ridging builds in from the west Monday. Skies will remain mostly clear through the day while generally light winds (less than 10 mph) prevail. Temperatures take another set warmer with highs reaching the 60s across northeast Colorado. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 No notable changes for the long term forecast period today. Still expecting above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the week, with the exception of some light mountain showers for the northern mountains Tuesday into Wednesday. With these warm and dry conditions in place, the main concern this week will be with potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions developing. We will see Monday's amplified ridge over the Intermountain West begin to flatten out Monday night as a shortwave passes to our north across the northern Rockies. This will result in a more zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Wednesday. This zonal flow will increase throughout the day on Tuesday as a near 120kt 250mb jet slides east, straddling the Wyoming/Colorado border. Guidance shows enough Pacific moisture getting drawn into the mountains to allow for some light mountain snow showers to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday. Cross-sections also indicate potential for mountain wave enhancement early Tuesday morning that could bring some gusty winds to the eastern slopes of the Front Range Mountains, but the most expected impact would be the development of a wave cloud that could limit surface heating through the morning, potentially resulting in some lower afternoon high temperatures than what are forecast. A tightening pressure gradient on Wednesday will result in enhanced northwesterly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. With 35 to 55 mph gusts expected for our northern plains, and 30 to 40 mph gusts expected for our eastern plains, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be a concern, as well above normal temperatures and low relative humidities in the mid teens are expected to coincide with the stronger winds for a few hours in the afternoon. With recent precipitation having fallen in the aforementioned locations, looking to get a fuel status update tomorrow before making any decisions on fire weather highlights. A moderation in temperatures will occur behind the cold front on Thursday, but quickly rebound to the mid to upper 70s across the plains on Friday, and continue to climb into the 80s for the weekend. The foothills and mountain valleys will be about ten degrees cooler than the plains, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s through the weekend. With persistent dry conditions expected through the week, some areas ofelevated fire weather conditions will be possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR to prevail through tonight and Monday. Northerly winds will continue through early evening, 01-02Z. Around 21Z, north to northeast winds increase with gusts of 20-25kts possible. Winds then decrease 01Z and then turn clockwise becoming south-southwest 04- 06Z. Southerly winds are then expected to prevail into Monday morning and possibly all of Monday. Wind speeds will be weak Monday, less than 15 knots and less than 10 knots most of the day. The weak winds will make the wind direction a challenge to forecast. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Bonner AVIATION...Meier