FXUS65 KBOU 032344 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 444 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow showers will continue for the mountains through late this evening. Scattered light snow showers on the plains this evening, mainly over the Palmer Divide. - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday, with warm and dry weather through the rest of the week. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1204 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 Snow has developed across portions of the front range today. Snow showers are expected to continue into the late evening/early overnight hours, with accumulations of generally around 1 to 4 inches for the higher elevations. In the plains, the front is pushing southeast through our CWA. Behind the front, winds will turn to the north/northwest and strengthen, with gusts around 20 to 35mph. Aloft, a northerly upper level jet is moving south into Colorado. We will be in the left exit region of the jet through the late evening/early overnight hours, providing weak lift for our area. An upper level disturbance will also be moving through at mid levels this afternoon and evening, providing another source of lift. However, the lack of moisture will really hinder precipitation chances for the plains today. Cross sections show a layer of dry air at the surface for this afternoon. Precipitation has started to form across portions of the plains as of the late morning, however much of this is currently and will likely continue to evaporate before it reaches the ground. As the precip evaporates, the dry layer will moisten and erode, eventually letting some light precip make it to the ground this evening. The best chance for any snow accumulation today and tonight (other than the mountains) will be the Palmer Divide, as northerly surface winds allow for some upslope. Snow accumulations along the Palmer will generally be a trace to 1 inch. The upper level trough will shift east on Wednesday as an upper high builds over the West Coast. As we go into the second half of the work week, the upper level ridging will progress east over our area. This will lead to quiet weather and very above normal temperatures for Thursday into Saturday. Highs will be around 20 degrees above normal for the Denver area, with forecast temperatures only 5 degrees below the record high for Friday. Models are hinting at a weak disturbance in the flow aloft Saturday afternoon into Sunday, which could send a weak front through the northeastern plains on Saturday. Precipitation chances remain low with this system however due to the limited moisture and lack of other forcings. The next decent chance for precipitation will be next week. A potent upper level low is forecast to develop over the southwestern U.S. at the end of this week. Ahead of this low, south/southwest winds aloft will bring Pacific moisture into Colorado. The increase in moisture and potential lift from a shortwave will lead to low precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday of next week (with better chances expected later on). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 Scattered light rain and snow showers had developed in the area late this afternoon, but low level moisture is still lacking and flow aloft is slightly west of due north, keeping any precipitation minimized. Looking upstream, there are additional convective showers in Wyoming drifting this way, but the chances of any significant shower activity reducing visibility are quite low given the dearth of moisture and weak downslope component. Areas closer to KAPA and mainly the Palmer Divide would have a higher chance, however, where the current flow and terrain orientation supports weak upslope. We will keep the low Prob30 in the forecast for light snow showers/flurries, but chance of any accumulation is quite small, and at worst a very light dusting in the grass. Precipitation potential winds down after 04Z, or 06Z at the latest, as we become more subsident and stable as the jet axis is expected to be passing just to our east by then. That will also support clearing skies. Gusty north winds are expected to diminish with loss of mixing, and then trend more NW-WSW overnight with clearing skies and a light drainage component offsetting the gradient winds. Hard to call winds tomorrow with multiple and all light wind solutions less than 10 kts. At this point, it really looks light and VRB once light drainage ceases by 17Z, with only a 30-40% chance of NW-N dominating for anything more than two to three hours. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...20