FXUS65 KBOU 031157 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 457 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and slightly cooler through Wednesday. - Quick-hitting light snow showers likely (60-70% chance) for the mountains starting Tuesday morning, and Palmer Divide Tuesday late afternoon, ending late Tuesday night. Lower chances (20-50%) elsewhere. Any accumulations will be light. - Warm and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week through the weekend. - Pattern change likely next week, finally! && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1100 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 A disturbance in NW flow aloft will move across the area Tue aftn into Tue night. Latest cross-sections show enough moisture to bring a good chc of light snow to the mtns mainly in the aftn and evening hours. At lower elevations, cross-sections are showing a dry layer in the boundary layer thru early Tue evening with some saturation after 03z. Overall, with northerly low level flow, this would favor areas of the Palmer Divide for some light snow Tue night. For Wed an upper level high will build over the Great Basin into Colorado with dry northerly flow aloft across the area. By Thu, this upper level high will shift a bit eastward into wrn Colorado. Overall, this will lead to a dry pattern both days, with temps well above normal by Thu, as readings reach the lower to mid 60's over nern CO. By Fri, the upper level high will weaken, however, an upper level ridge will still linger over the area as weak upper level trough develops over the swrn US. As a result, this will lead to another dry day with highs well above normal normal. Looking ahead to the weekend, the weak upper level trough over the swrn US will shift southward with weak flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections show very little moisture either day so dry conditions will continue with above normal temperatures. Finally, peering into the longer term, eventually may see a pattern change by the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough affects the area. As a result, would see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with a good chc of precip. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 437 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 Light winds, generally under 10 kts, are currently in place for all TAF sites this morning. Drainage flow should continue for the next couple of hours before winds begin strengthening and transitioning to NW by 17Z/18Z. Guidance has been consistent with NW winds gusting up to 25-30 kts between 18Z and 02Z, peaking between 21Z and 00Z. Models struggle to handle the dominating wind direction after 02Z, but a brief NNE component before transitioning back to WSW by 06Z is the most likely scenario at this time. Hi-res guidance has continued to indicate a slightly earlier timing of precipitation this afternoon. Ceilings should begin to lower by late morning, with a cloud base of 6000 ft possible by 23Z. Light rain/snow showers could begin as early as 21Z for all TAF sites. Although, wouldn't be surprised if an isolated shower develops slightly earlier. Have moved up the PROB30 to an earlier time due to this. After 00Z/01Z, temperatures should be cold enough to support all snow. Light accumulations, if any, are expected, with best chance for any accumulation APA due to favorable upsloping. Confidence is high (~70%) that precipitation will end by 06Z (slightly earlier for BJC). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...MAI