FXUS65 KBOI 191540

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

940 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will continue through the

next several days, with today expected to be the hottest day of

the work week. Smoke from the Cottonwood Peak fire in northern

Nevada will move into southwest Idaho, creating hazy skies.

Breezy winds near ridgetops are anticipated in the Owyhee

Mountains, with primarily light terrain driven winds elsewhere.

A very low chance of showers (<10% chance) will occur in the West

Central Mountains and near the Magic Valley this afternoon. No 

necessary updates to the forecast. 



&&



.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Low chance (<10%) of a stray 

shower/thunderstorm in northern Valley County. Local visibility 

reductions in the W-Central ID Mountains and Snake Plain near Mtn 

Home due to wildfire smoke. Surface winds: mostly variable 10 kts or 

less, becoming SW to NW 7-12 kts. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S to SW 

5-15 kt.



KBOI...VFR. Smoke layers aloft. Surface winds: light and variable, 

becoming NW 5-15 kt this afternoon.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...The forecast

through the short term will be dominated by a ridge of high

pressure building over the four corners. While the flow will be

roughly southwesterly each day, the warm southerly component

will peak today with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A weak

shortwave is still on track to moderate temps to 5 degrees above

normal Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions will be hot, dry, and

a little breezy, so smoke from wildfires in Nevada and the Idaho

mountains will continue to move into the region. Models are

skeptical as to how much will mix to the surface, but some

surface haze is likely. Wind gusts Tuesday and Wednesday are

expected to be 20-30 mph in SW Idaho and the Snake Plain. Very 

limited monsoon moisture could support a storm or two in south- 

central and central Idaho Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.



LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The Four Corners High

continues to be the focus in the long term, warming temperatures

to 5-15 degrees above normal from Friday through Sunday. Also,

the now well entrenched monsoonal high will begin to stream

moisture into the area proper, especially by Sunday and Monday.

Afternoon thunderstorm chances rise from 10% on Saturday to near

20%-30% Sunday and Monday. With the very warm and dry surface

conditions, high bases should make winds the primary threat, but

also hint at a risk of dry thunderstorms. Fire weather risk will

be elevated coming out of the warm and dry midweek into the dry

thunderstorm potential late this weekend. Smoke is expected to

continue from local fires.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...None.



&&



$$



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DISCUSSION...SA

AVIATION.....CH

SHORT TERM...JM

LONG TERM....JM