FXUS65 KBOI 052007 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 207 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy this afternoon and tonight. - Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today over the mountains of S Idaho and SE Oregon, otherwise dry. - Above normal temperatures will continue, as much as 15-20 degrees above normal next Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25 percent areal coverage) in and near the Magic Valley late this afternoon and evening as hi-res models show a distinct convergence zone there, and enough lift to generate clouds and pcpn. Models depict large scale northerly surface winds entering the Snake Basin through both Oregon and Montana and converging in the Magic Valley. The stronger portion from Montana will push the convergence zone westward overnight as a "back door" cold front, all the way past Boise by sunrise. The air from Montana is very dry, but tonight will be too windy to allow full radiational cooling once skies clear. Wednesday looks sunny, dry, less windy, and slightly cooler than today. Wednesday night should be clear, dry, and calmer, but by then the next warmer air mass will approach from the west, offsetting the better conditions for radiational cooling. So Wednesday night should be no cooler than tonight. Thursday looks sunny and 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Wednesday, and Thursday night looks clear and cool. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... A brief cooldown will commence Friday into Saturday as a weak and dry cold front moves through the region. However, the heat will build early next week in association with a strong area of high pressure aloft over the western United States. Monday is currently forecast to see the hottest temperatures of the year so far, peaking at 15 to 20 degrees normal. Latest probabilities suggest a 50-80% chance of a high temperature above 90 degrees in the Snake Plain and over lower elevations of southeast Oregon. Tuesday will also be hot, though perhaps a few degrees cooler than Monday. Precipitation chances will be near zero throughout the period, with only a slight chance of showers on Saturday in the central Idaho mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1034 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke. Isolated showers/thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southeast Oregon and central ID mountains this afternoon and evening. 30% chance of thunderstorms affecting KTWF/KJER between 05/22Z and 06/02Z. Gusty erratic outflow winds possible with the stronger storms. Surface winds: W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt through the evening. Becoming light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: N 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Cumulus buildups east of terminal this afternoon. Surface winds: NW 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Becoming SE 10-20kt after 06/08Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JR AVIATION.....JR