FXUS64 KTSA 241753 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms continue through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall totals likely. - Low and conditional threat for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening across far eastern OK into western AR. - A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Tuesday, with potential for strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Surface analysis depicts a warm frontal boundary sitting roughly along the Red River, with cool, cloudy and rain cooled air in place across eastern OK. The current round of rain and storms moving across northern OK, likely forced by waa/isentropic lift, is likely to end this afternoon. Rain and storm coverage is expected to increase again late this afternoon across west TX and OK as lift from an approaching upper trough interacts with the low level instability axis that is in place there. This activity will spread east this evening and overnight while gradually weakening to mainly light to moderate rain. Will keep the Flood Watch across NE OK as is, with some threat for localized flash flooding. The Watch will expire at 12Z Saturday morning. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 By Saturday morning, a dry slot is expected to punch into OK from the southwest and will overspread the region by afternoon, decreasing rain coverage. The latest CAM data develops storms during the late afternoon into the evening across far eastern OK into western AR to the east of the upper/surface low. If there is enough clearing in the dry slot, there may be enough instability in a favorable low level wind shear environment to yield a conditional severe threat. The upper system will shift east and rain will gradually taper off on Sunday. Focus then turns to the energetic system early next week. This system will be on the nose of an extended cross-Pacific jet. The 12Z GFS/Canadian both buckle the jet and close off a 500mb low nearby Tuesday into Wednesday, which would warrant the low PoPs from the model blend in the north and east. A strong front in association with the upper system is not expected to encounter enough moisture/instability to force convection until it gets well to the south and east of the forecast area. Strong wind gusts, likely near advisory criteria, are expected by Tuesday afternoon behind the front across eastern KS down into eastern OK. Winds may be gusty during the day Wednesday as well. High pressure will build into the region by Thursday, with quiet, fall weather to close out the week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Widespread rain showers with isolated thunder continues over much of NE OK and NW AR through the afternoon, with more scattered activity expected across SE OK and WC AR sites. Occasional MVFR and IFR cigs and vsbys will occur within the rain showers through sunset this evening. Later this evening and overnight Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to develop as cigs lower and mist/fog develops, especially across NE OK sites where conditions are expected to be the worst. Off and on rain showers will also continue through the rest of the period, with thunder chances diminishing as we head into tomorrow morning. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 63 56 66 / 100 80 50 20 FSM 57 65 58 69 / 80 70 70 40 MLC 57 68 56 70 / 90 80 50 30 BVO 52 62 51 64 / 90 90 60 20 FYV 52 64 52 66 / 80 80 70 50 BYV 51 60 52 61 / 8070 70 60 MKO 56 63 56 68 / 90 80 60 30 MIO 53 61 53 64 / 90 90 60 30 F10 55 65 55 69 / 90 80 40 20 HHW 57 69 59 73 / 90 80 60 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>056-059>061- 064>067-070-071. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14