FXUS64 KTSA 200418 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1118 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Anomalously warm temperatures continue into the weekend. Near record or record high temperatures are forecast each day. - Limited fire weather threat each afternoon through Saturday. Elevated to near critical fire spread potential behind a cold front Sunday. - No meaningful rain chances over the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Thru Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A quiet night is in store tonight with some passing high cloud. Lows will drop into the 50s most areas. On Friday, the LLTR will strengthen over the region ahead of an approaching weak front from KS. Expect high temps a few degrees above the already warm numbers that were observed today, which were 20 to 25 degrees above average for this time of year. A record high was set at KFYV today, and more records are expected to be tied or set on Friday. The gradient will be weak, thus lighter winds will limit fire weather concerns. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 The anomalously strong upper ridge over the Southwest will weaken and flatten out a bit over the next several days, though some ridging is expected to persist to our west through the forecast period. At the surface, the gradient will tighten on Saturday and especially Saturday night as a pre-frontal trough approaches. More near record or record highs can be expected. A slight uptick in winds/gusts will increase fire spread rate potential, though still looking limited overall. A cold front will make its way across the region Sunday, with a wind shift to the north and a tightening gradient suggesting a definite uptick in winds/gusts by Sunday afternoon, especially across NE OK. Near record or record highs remain possible ahead of the front Sunday as well. Current forecast spread indices/rates and low humidity would argue for an eventual Red Flag warning, given the favorable and abundant fuels that are in place. No precip is expected with this front owing to poor moisture return ahead of it with surface ridging over the Gulf. After a relatively cooler day Monday, winds turn back around to the south on Tuesday and will likely be gusty, so fire weather concerns will be on the rise again. A weak boundary will weaken the gradient/winds for Wednesday before winds pick back up again Thursday ahead of the next notable cold front Thursday night into Friday. Ensemble guidance has some chance for precip with this front, though chances look small at this point. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Generally light southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 54 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 55 90 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 49 91 50 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 56 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 54 88 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 54 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 54 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 54 86 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...04