FXUS64 KTSA 191639 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Anomalously warm temperatures continue through the remainder of the week. Near record high temperatures are forecast each day through Sunday. - Limited fire weather threat each afternoon through Saturday. Elevated conditions behind a cold front Sunday. - No significant rain chances over the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A strong upper level high is in control across the entire southern Plains. Skies will remain clear or mostly clear today with light southwest flow. Considering the very warm airmass now in place, high temperatures will quickly rise to well above normal. Most areas will be around to 10 F warmer than yesterday, with mid to upper 80s for eastern Oklahoma and low to mid 80s in northwest Arkansas. Fayetteville Arkansas is forecasted to tie their record high, with our other climates sites falling short of a new record. Mild and dry conditions will persist overnight, with mostly lighter winds. Low temperatures will mainly fall to the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 An anomalously strong and record breaking upper level high will remain anchored across the southwest-central US for the next few days. The strong high pressure will result in additional warming the next several days. By many metrics, the upper level pattern resembles something that might be expected in June or July, which will push temperatures towards records. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday and low to mid 90s by Saturday. Dew points will remain relatively low given light surface flow, mainly in the 40s and 50s. The light winds will help with fire weather issues, given an otherwise favorable environment. Models continue to show a strong but dry cold front on Sunday. Model guidance is honing in the frontal timing, passing through northeast OK in the early afternoon, then the remainder of the forecast area by early evening. This timing would still allow most areas to reach 90F Sunday except for northwest of I-44. Behind the cold front, winds will become strong for a few hours, with wind gusts of 30-45 mph. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed. Considering the dry air behind the front, fire weather concerns will become elevated for a few hours as well. Monday will be cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s under increased cloud cover. As the upper level ridge flexes back into the region, temperatures are expected to quickly warm into day 7, possibly approaching 90 F again for some areas. Rain chances remain very low through day 7. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Light winds and VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 86 54 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 85 54 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 85 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 86 49 91 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 82 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 82 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 84 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 83 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 87 54 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 83 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07