FXUS64 KTSA 190527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Anomalously warm temperatures continue through the remainder of the week. Near record high temperatures are forecast each day through the upcoming weekend. - Limited fire weather threat each afternoon through Saturday. Elevated conditions behind a cold front Sunday. - No significant rain chances over the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 A highly anomalous summer-like mid/upper level ridge will strengthen and anchor itself over western AZ/southern CA during the daytime Thursday. Our weather, locally, will be highly influenced by this feature through the remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend. A broad and elongated area of low pressure at the surface will shift southward over the Southern Plains around midday. As a result, after starting the day out of the south, winds will become light and variable through the second half of the daytime. The lighter wind speeds should really help suppress fire weather concerns in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with widespread highs on Thursday reaching the low-mid 80s for the eastern half of the CWA to mid- upper 80s for the western half. A few spots west of Highway 75 may even approach 90 degrees. With the exception of Fayetteville (with a daily record of 81 degrees and a forecast temperature around 82 degrees), temperatures should stay below record values for Thursday. Skies stay mostly sunny with a few to scattered high clouds. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Main focus in the long-term period will be abnormally hot (and near-record to record-breaking temperatures) and limited to elevated fire weather concerns as a result of a dry forecast and periods of breezy winds. Good agreement in ensemble and deterministic data show the anomalous ridge over the Desert Southwest holding strong through at least Saturday afternoon before it begins to flatten and elongates. This will maintain unseasonably hot temperatures on Friday, Saturday, and even into Sunday despite the weakening ridge. A few daily records are expected to be approached, reached, and/or exceeded all three days. Widespread afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will be common, especially on Saturday and Sunday when temperatures are supposed to be warmest. Light to moderate southerly winds will keep at least limited fire weather potential on Friday and again on Saturday, with highest concern across northeast OK where winds will be breeziest and relative humidity values lowest. The weather pattern will begin to transition from the stagnant summer-like pattern we are in now to slightly more seasonal starting on Sunday as height falls occurs aloft. A fairly strong cold front will quickly push through the forecast area sometime Sunday afternoon/evening. Forecast models still show some discrepancies with regards to timing, but the main points will be: a dry front with no precipitation expected, unseasonably hot ahead of the frontal boundary, much cooler behind the front, and fire weather concerns will become elevated behind the frontal boundary. Strong and dry northerly winds will cause dewpoint temperatures and relative humidity values to drop, with widespread minimum RH in the 20-25 percent range. Humidity values will be lowest west of Highway 75, with values dropping as low as 15 percent behind the front in the afternoon. Despite the strong cold front moving through, temperatures will remain above average through the early and middlepart of next week, with widespread highs in the 80s returning by next Wednesday. No significant precipitation is expected in the long-term period. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 55 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 86 54 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 86 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 87 48 92 50 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 82 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 83 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 85 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 83 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 F10 87 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 83 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05