FXUS64 KTSA 061730 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - Main-stem river and some areal flooding continues across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas from the heavy rains the past few days. - Rain may mix with or briefly change over to snow this morning across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Little to no accumulation is expected, and travel impacts are not expected. - A freeze is expected in many areas Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 THe upper level trough axis will continue to push east throughout the rest of the day today, while weakening as it does so. A band of very light precipitation, mostly just some sprinkles will be possible into the early afternoon across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. A few snow flurries could also be seen across the far northern areas, as the cold temps aloft have spread over the region. Still, surface temperatures in the low 40s will preclude from any snow sticking if it reaches the surface. Any precip will slowly move east of the area through the afternoon, with clearing skies spreading from west to east. A chilly day for early April is on track, with highs only reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region with breezy northerly winds. Portions of northwest Arkansas where skies will be slow to clear, will likely stay in the low to mid 40s most of the day. For the morning update, adjusted PoPs and temps for the rest of the day to account for the latest obs and trends in the guidance. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures tonight to fall to near or slightly below freezing in most places. A freeze watch has been issued for the entire forecast area as a result. Dry and warmer weather returns Monday and persists through the rest of the forecast period. A weak cold front Thursday may knock temperatures back a few degrees, but overall temperatures will be near or above the seasonal averages for much of the upcoming week with little or no chance for significant rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Scattered very light showers will continue to track eastward across northwest Arkansas sites through the afternoon. Little to no aviation impact is expected from this activity. MVFR cigs will hold over SE OK and NW AR sites also through the afternoon, with gradual clearing from the west expected later this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds will go light and variable to calm this evening lasting through much of the rest of the period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 32 65 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 34 66 39 71 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 32 64 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 29 66 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 30 63 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 31 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 30 63 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 29 63 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 31 64 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 34 62 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...04