FXUS64 KTSA 060435

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



 - Thunderstorm chances remain into Wednesday mainly south of 

   Interstate 40..



 - Below normal temperatures through Thursday.



 - Southerly winds and a warmer trend Friday with a return of 

   shower and thunderstorm chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through Wednesday Night) 

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



The surface frontal boundary that moved across eastern Oklahoma and 

northwest Arkansas Tuesday had pushed southeast of southeast 

Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas mid evening Tuesday. Meanwhile, 

frontogenetic forcing at the 925-mb and 850-mb levels are expected

to remain over the CWA into early Wednesday morning. In response,

and combined with a vort max moving across Kansas, will continue 

rain chances for the CWA, with thunder potentials mainly along and

south of Interstate 40 into early Wednesday morning. Latest 

short- term solutions continue to hint at a few elevated storms 

developing near the 925-mb frontal boundary late Tuesday night 

and have trended higher PoPs in far southeast Oklahoma.



During the day Wednesday, a shortwave is progged to drop southeast 

out of the Rocky Mountains and into the central/southern Plains 

Wednesday evening. This will help push the elevated frontal 

boundaries over the region to the southeast and exit Wednesday 

evening. Rain chances along with thunder potentials shift southeast 

Wednesday and should taper off/exit with the departed elevated 

fronts. Majority of the instability remains south/southeast of the 

CWA Wednesday, thus severe potentials are not anticipated. 



Cloud cover and northerly winds combined with surface high pressure 

sagging into the region will keep the much cooler conditions going 

for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the 40s/50s are 

expected Wednesday morning and then only warm into the 60s during 

the day. The shortwave moving into the region Wednesday evening 

moves off to the southeast Thursday morning, which could create the 

scattering of cloud cover late Wednesday night. These conditions and 

light winds will help low temperatures fall into the 40s for most 

locations. The normal cool locations could potentially fall into the 

upper 30s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Tuesday) 

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



The shortwave quickly exits during the day Thursday with surface 

high pressure exiting Thursday night. This will allow for the return 

of southerly winds and temperatures climbing back into the 80s 

Friday. On the heals of the departing shortwave, a second shortwave 

quickly drops southeast through the Plains, which could create the 

potential for low chances of showers/storms as the wave moves 

through. For now, with uncertainty of moisture return, will carry 

low PoPs for the northeast portion of the CWA Friday 

afternoon/evening. 



The Friday disturbance exits Friday night ahead of another area of 

low pressure and frontal boundary progged to move through the region 

Sunday/Sunday night. Moisture advection into the region should have 

more time ahead of this wave, and could have a higher chance for 

showers/storms. Cooler temperatures are also forecast late weekend 

as the wave moves through. However, breezy southerly winds and 

warmer conditions quickly return early next week. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail overnight into Wednesday, with

the far northwest Arkansas sites most likely to see IFR

conditions. A few showers and thunderstorms may affect KMLC and

KFSM late this evening and overnight. Ceilings will improve to VFR

at the northeast Oklahoma sites Wednesday afternoon.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   47  64  43  71 /  20  10   0   0 

FSM   53  66  48  72 /  30  20  10   0 

MLC   50  66  46  72 /  20  20   0   0 

BVO   44  62  37  70 /  20  10   0   0 

FYV   46  62  42  68 /  30  20   0  10 

BYV   45  60  43  67 /  40  20   0   0 

MKO   48  64  44  70 /  20  20   0   0 

MIO   45  61  40  67 /  30  10   0   0 

F10   48  64  43  70 /  20  10   0   0 

HHW   55  68  52  72 /  30  20  10   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...20

LONG TERM....20

AVIATION...05