FXUS64 KTSA 051734 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1234 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon with a brief window for a few severe storms before the focus moves east and south of the local region. - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week. - Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances returning for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 921 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Cold front is currently aligned along Interstate 44 through NE OK and intersects a sfc low over SW OK. Outflow from the overnight convection likely extends into far NW AR south of the cold front with a more notable airmass change along and south of the AR River valley through SE OK with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. Short term guidance is in general agreement that the sfc low will weaken as it translates eastward along the cold front through the afternoon becoming centered over east central OK by mid afternoon. The more unstable airmass across SE OK will attempt to spread northward though extensive cloud cover and residual outflow may somewhat limit the northward advance. A corridor of higher storm chances may develop immediately east of the sfc low along the residual boundary with mid afternoon storm development being a focus from east central OK through the higher terrain corridor of NW AR where multiple CAMS solutions suggest initial development. The cold front will make steady progress southeastward and clear the forecast area by early to mid evening ending the risk of severe weather. Any sustained storms ahead of the front will pose a risk of large hail and locally damaging winds. A tornado risk may also develop especially in vicinity of any residual boundaries. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 The cold front gets a push southeastward during the day Wednesday as a low pressure system moves southeast out of the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. Thus, rain chances are forecast to taper off and exit Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Upper level trof axis to the low moves across the region Wednesday night which will help to scatter cloud cover and aid in the coldest temperatures of the forecast period. Lows in the 40s are forecast for much of the CWA, though upper 30s could develop within the normal cool locations. Cool conditions remain into Thursday before southerly winds transport warmer temperatures back into the CWA Friday. A shortwave is progged to move through the southern Plains Friday night with a second wave pushing southeast through the central Plains Sunday/Monday. Latest model solutions indicate the better low level moisture return could with the late weekend wave and an increase in additional shower and thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Cold front continues to slowly push southward across eastern OK into northwest AR and will continue to do so the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. North of the front expect widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings with gusty N-NE winds and some patchy light rain. There may be a window for improved ceilings part of the evening, but MVFR will prevail for the most part. Ahead of the front there are areas of lower ceilings, but they should at least temporarily improve this afternoon before S-SW winds shift to the north with the frontal passage and lower ceilings return. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front after 21z, with low potential for impacting FYV/FSM as the main development is likely to occur just east of those sites. && .PRELIMINARYPOINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 49 63 43 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 81 54 67 48 / 40 20 20 10 MLC 81 51 67 46 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 60 45 61 39 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 72 48 63 42 / 50 30 20 0 BYV 66 47 59 43 / 50 40 20 0 MKO 76 50 64 44 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 61 46 60 41 / 40 20 10 0 F10 78 49 64 44 / 10 10 10 0 HHW 86 57 70 51 / 20 20 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...14