FXUS64 KTSA 051430

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

930 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New SHORT TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 921 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



 - Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon with a brief

   window for a few severe storms before the focus moves east and

   south of the local region.



 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.



 - Warmer temperatures from Friday on, with low rain chances

   returning for the weekend. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through tonight )

Issued at 921 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Cold front is currently aligned along Interstate 44 through NE OK

and intersects a sfc low over SW OK. Outflow from the overnight

convection likely extends into far NW AR south of the cold front

with a more notable airmass change along and south of the AR River

valley through SE OK with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in

the mid 60s. Short term guidance is in general agreement that the

sfc low will weaken as it translates eastward along the cold front

through the afternoon becoming centered over east central OK by

mid afternoon. The more unstable airmass across SE OK will attempt

to spread northward though extensive cloud cover and residual

outflow may somewhat limit the northward advance. A corridor of 

higher storm chances may develop immediately east of the sfc low 

along the residual boundary with mid afternoon storm development 

being a focus from east central OK through the higher terrain 

corridor of NW AR where multiple CAMS solutions suggest initial 

development. The cold front will make steady progress 

southeastward and clear the forecast area by early to mid evening 

ending the risk of severe weather. Any sustained storms ahead of 

the front will pose a risk of large hail and locally damaging 

winds. A tornado risk may also develop especially in vicinity of 

any residual boundaries.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through Monday) 

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



The cold front gets a push southeastward during the day Wednesday as 

a low pressure system moves southeast out of the Rocky Mountains

and into the Plains. Thus, rain chances are forecast to taper off

and exit Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Upper level trof axis

to the low moves across the region Wednesday night which will 

help to scatter cloud cover and aid in the coldest temperatures of

the forecast period. Lows in the 40s are forecast for much of the

CWA, though upper 30s could develop within the normal cool 

locations. Cool conditions remain into Thursday before southerly 

winds transport warmer temperatures back into the CWA Friday. 



A shortwave is progged to move through the southern Plains Friday 

night with a second wave pushing southeast through the central Plains 

Sunday/Monday. Latest model solutions indicate the better low level 

moisture return could with the late weekend wave and an increase in 

additional shower and thunderstorm chances. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



The theme is the same as what was presented in the 06Z discussion

and forecast. Pretty complex forecast with a lot of moving parts

during this forecast period. We have a cold front that will move

south and east over the region through the day today, with MVFR 

and even IFR cigs overspreading the area behind the front. Low 

cigs are observed at some NW AR sites ahead of the front as well. 

Finally, there is potential for afternoon storm development most 

likely just to the east of KFYV and KFSM, but close enough for a 

prob30 mention. South to southeast winds will swing around to the 

east and then north behind the front and will be gusty at times. 

Some improvement in cig heights is possible near the KS border at 

KBVO, and also at KFSM during the day as MVFR cigs lift to VFR 

before the frontand the low MVFR cigs return behind it. KMLC will

probably be VFR until after the front arrives late this afternoon

and the MVFR cigs spread in.



Lacy



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   67  49  61  43 /  20  20  10   0 

FSM   81  54  66  49 /  40  30  30  10 

MLC   81  51  66  47 /  10  20  20   0 

BVO   60  45  59  39 /  20  20  10   0 

FYV   72  48  61  40 /  50  30  20  10 

BYV   66  47  58  43 /  50  40  30  10 

MKO   76  50  63  44 /  20  20  20  10 

MIO   61  46  59  40 /  40  20  20   0 

F10   78  49  63  44 /  10  10  10   0 

HHW   86  58  69  52 /  20  30  30  10 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...07

LONG TERM....22

AVIATION...30